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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tide who wrote (28388)	9/19/1998 8:26:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Tide, Insiders are an EXCELLENT FA indicator... and it doesn't suprise me at all. But get through that 8,200 level by Wednesday and KATIE BAR THE DOOR!!! And remember it was I saying up, UP and AWAY... Bill

To: tide who wrote (28388)	9/19/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 94695

Notice some of the partiuclars of the article tide. Author is discussing purchases occuring in July and earlier. Also note the sectors where buying and selling were going on. The sectors in which selling was going on are now the market leaders -- if these fall down the whole market is going in the toilet. Even for the execs in some of the legitimately beaten down shares, some semis, oil patch group, if they made their purchases in July and prior it would be interesting to see how they feel now. Finally, here is a question: In the last real bear market -- not '87: Do you know if there were executives buying after the first downleg? I would suggest anybody looking at such information not simply assume that these execs are smarter. They probably aren't in this regard. Instead look first at the macroeconomic picture, the performance of equities over the last 5 - 10 years, and consider the prudent management of risk in the event that returns from the S&P revert to the norm in the next few years. There are certainly financial instabilities, uncertainties that would indicate that this is not totally out of the realm of possibility. Further, the move up in financial assets has been quite rapid, fueled by a rather ideal set of conditions for this to happen -- a huge expansion in credit creation. Self-reinforcing moves in the opposite direction are quite possible.