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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RDR who wrote (1660)	9/20/1998 8:22:00 AM
From: MoonBrother	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4710

I have studied VTSS's TA chart since Jan. 96, and found that although always volatile, VTSS's moving trend is surprisingly clear-patterned. My conclusion is that, every sign points to a quick and powerful recovery to $32 ~$35 range in the next 2 ~ 4 weeks. Once recovered, VTSS should move up at least another 10 points from there in the following 6 months before another possible correction. The following is the detailed TA info. 1. Historical Corrections There are 4 biggest corrections, including the current one, since Jan 1996. They happened in Q2 96, Q1 97, Q4 97, and Q3 98. Surprisingly the magnitude of all 4 corrections are around 40%. The first one dropped from $10 to $6 in about a 1.5 months. The second one dropped from $17 to $10 in 2 months. The 3rd one dropped from $26 to $16 in 3 months, and final current one dropped from $36 to $23 in 1 month. 2. How VTSS Recovered from the Corrections VTSS always recovered its losses in about the same time frame it used to correct itself. It used about 1.5 months to cover the loss of the 1st correction, about 1.8 months to recover the 2nd one, about 3 months for the 3rd one. If the trend holds, we should recover some 13 pts lost in the current correction in the next month or so! 3. Price Gained after Correction Cycle Is Completed VTSS always gain extra value after each correction cycle completes. It went up from $10 to $17, in about 6 months following the 1st correction completed; and went up from $17 to $26 in about 6 months following the 2nd one. It went up from $26 to $37 also in about 6 months. If you add the recovery part of the gain into each upswing period, VTSS has 200%, 270%, 125% gains respectively after each correction. If this trend holds again, a reasonable 100% gain from the current price of $23 is $46. That's why most analysts have a 12 month target of $45 ~ $48. All in all, during the past 2.75 years, VTSS's price has raised about 700% from $5 to $36 (split adjusted). Based on the company's book-and-bill and backlog, we can rest for sure that VTSS's price gain will follow its historical trend for at least another 2 ~ 3 years. All the analysts are predicting a 50% revenue gain each year for the foreseeable future (3 ~ 5 years). In conclusion, we are just about at the current correction bottom. We should see a powerful recovery in the next 2 weeks to bring us back to $30. Another 2 weeks after that to bring us back into mid $35 range. With Q3 report out and all the analysts' strong push after that, we can predict that VTSS shall start another smooth run toward $45 starting mid Oct. Good luck whoever bot VTSS at this incredible correction bottom! Buy yourself a beer and enjoy the upswing coming in the next months! MB BTW, I will post analysts' comments on VTSS as soon as they are available. Thanks to whoever who have thanked me for posting them.