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To: Night Writer who wrote (33154)9/20/1998 2:17:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd  Respond to of 97611
 
Wide Focus Works for
Server Vendors
hlpinout
Sep 20 1998
2:07PM EDT

Too long of an article to post. I hope you can load
this web site. It sometimes gives to a Reload message
but I have found it may not work. I think it is a server
problem and if interested, you can try at a later time.
techweb.com
Just a footnote. I received a disk from PC World and
instead of AOL, there is a program to install AltaVista
and Mindspring.
Good Investing
WIDE FOCUS WORKS FOR SERVER VENDORS
Mary Hayes

The server market is the bedrock of the computer hardware industry. Revenue for the
$32.2 billion market is expected to grow at a modest-yet-healthy annual rate of 15% over
the next five years-just as it did over the past five years, according to Dataquest.

But increasing competition is making it difficult for less-established companies to create
strong growth in the enterprise. Within the past year or so, some server players with
limited niches-including Axil, Digital Equipment, Netpower, Stratus, and Tandem-have
gone out of business or have been acquired by stronger vendors. And most analysts
say the market consolidation is far from over.

Part of what's fueling the mergers is the emergence of the Windows NT server platform,
which was quickly embraced by large vendors such as Compaq, Dell, Hewlett-Packard,
and IBM. Servers offer a higher profit margin than desktop systems-so companies with
deep pockets will only increase their server pursuits as PCs continue to drop in price.
That's making it difficult for smaller vendors-such as Micron Electronics and Data
General, both of which recently reported weak financials-to get a piece of the NT pie.

Meanwhile, the consolidating midrange server market is creating problems for
companies such as Silicon Graphics that don't have a strong following in the enterprise.

Analysts say the companies that will best weather the consolidating market will be
those that offer servers from entry level through the midrange market. "Breadth of
product line is a good indicator of success," says Jerry Sheridan, a Dataquest analyst.

For Compaq, HP, and IBM, that means offering a range of platforms-from one-processor
Windows or Intel servers priced like high-end PCs up to massive Unix clusters built
upon dozens of RISC processors and priced at $1 million or more. Many customers are
developing mixed environments, with Unix on the back-end data center and NT at the
front or middle of the infrastructure.

But it wasn't too long ago that selling Unix/RISC alongside Wintel was controversial.
When HP began heavily promoting its Wintel servers, its staunchest Unix competitor,
Sun Microsystems, launched a massive marketing campaign claiming that HP was
moving away from its Unix business.

Late last year, HP executives admitted that focusing disproportionate attention on the
emerging NT business and neglecting Unix was partly responsible for driving its
midrange market share revenue from 14.6% in 1996 to 12.7% in 1997. Although HP's
entry-level market share increased from 8.8% in 1996 to 11.1% in 1997, revenue from the
lower-cost systems couldn't offset the Unix loss. Intel-based servers accounted for
82.9% of the 2.5 million servers shipped in 1997, but just 27.8% of sales revenue,
according to Dataquest.

Unix Still Counts

Analysts say HP learned a valuable lesson about what's happening in the market:
Despite the Wintel server's rapid growth, Unix still matters-a lot. The strong marketing
cries from the Wintel camp about imminent scalability can't hide the truth revealed by
the state of the technology: It will be several years, at least, before the Wintel
architecture has the power and stability to support key business applications. "It
appears that the promise of Wintel on the high-end may be delayed a bit," says Thomas
Kraemer, an analyst with Morgan Stanley DeanWitter in New York. Kraemer predicts
solid growth in Unix server sales for the three top U.S. players in that market: HP, IBM,
and Sun.

Analysts also expect that the newly diversified Compaq will soon join that crowd.
Compaq has traditionally been known for offering Intel-based systems running NT or
SCO Unix. But within the past year, Compaq acquired Digital and Tandem-getting, in the
process, powerful versions of Unix, proprietary high-end technologies such as
clustering, and Digital's powerful Alpha processor. Compaq says it plans to be a $50
billion company by 2000 and is shooting for Unix and NT servers to make up 50% of that
revenue. While revenue was just $5.8 billion for the most recent quarter, analysts say
that if the company executes correctly, Compaq will emerge a powerful force. "It will take
Compaq a while to digest Digital, but they will be one to be considered against IBM, HP,
and Sun," says Rich Partridge, an analyst with D.H. Brown.

Merced Strategies

Nonetheless, IT managers are undeniably attracted to the cost-effective Wintel platform.
And they're looking forward to the development of more eight-processor Intel
Xeon-based systems, which are expected to become available in early 1999. Customers
want to know that the servers they buy provide adequate headroom as their NT
applications grow. "We view the eight-processor system as an insurance policy," says
Ray Krump, director of IT for Mitsubishi Electric Automation Inc. in Vernon Hills, Ill.,
who invested in Wintel-at half the cost of a Unix system.

In the longer term, analysts say smart vendors are developing strategies for Intel's
forthcoming Merced chip, which carries the hope of establishing a standards-based
commodity platform that could dramatically drive down the cost of midrange and
high-end servers.

Today, vendors are developing strategies within their cross-platform strategies. IBM
says it's funneling its mainframe technologies further down its server line and
developing add-on technologies that improve interoperability among its myriad
systems, from the S/390 and AS/400 to the RS/6000 Unix and Netfinity NT lines. And
even though IBM sells more RISC (PowerPC) servers than anyone, the company will
likely port its AIX Unix to Merced. "Unix on Intel will be an important part of the
market," says Bill Zeitler, general manager of server brand management.

HP's strategy is in close alignment with Intel's, with which it is co-developing Merced.
HP is banking heavily on the architecture, and will eventually phase out its own
PA-RISC line. Compaq plans to adopt Merced-but in the meantime, it's attempting to
establish its newly acquired Digital Alpha chip architecture as a standard high-end
hardware platform.

Despite the market's rush toward Merced, Sun hasn't said it will build systems based on
the platform. But while the company remains committed to its own Unix/ RISC platform,
it's also working on making its technologies more compatible with NT. Analysts also say
Sun is quietly hedging its bets by laying the groundwork for moving to Merced if its
success as a proprietary vendor becomes threatened. But according to Anil Gadre, VP of
marketing at Sun, "Unfailingly, our top customers tell us, 'stay the course, and don't
screw with anything else.'"

On the other end of the spectrum is Dell, with its steadfast commitment to NT. The
company stormed the NT server market two years ago with low-priced systems and a
direct-sales model. Dell is counting on future versions of NT to provide more scalability;
meanwhile it's boosting power through partnerships. For example, it turned around Fibre
Channel storage technology it licensed from Data General into what is currently the
lowest-cost offering of high-speed storage for NT systems. "We'll stay focused on what
we believe is the fastest growing area of the marketplace," says Tejas Vakil, VP of server
marketing.

Analysts say that attitude will position Dell well in the Wintel space- but will prevent it
from becoming a major server player within the next few years. "Dell is a darling now,
but I don't know that they'll grow without additional [Unix] alliances," says analyst
Partridge. Indeed, the server market is rapidly moving toward a philosophy of "more is
better"-although success will depend, as always, on how well each vendor executes its
strategy.

Copyright r 1998 CMP Media Inc.



To: Night Writer who wrote (33154)9/20/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 97611
 
NW & Thread, Found the following on the Yahoo Board and thought it interesting. El
business to corporations

Sunday, September 13, 1998

By Len Boselovic, Post-Gazette Staff Writer

Wanted: Raw investment advice for the masses. Willingness to speak your mind
more important than spelling or grammar. Need not identify yourself or have
impressive credentials. Ulterior motives not an obstacle.

Apply @ stock.message.boards, a national town meeting for investors held at the
Internet's answer to the Wild, Wild West.

Founded to disseminate information to the
common investor and fueled by an unprecedented
bull market, stock message boards have morphed
into a First Amendment free-for-all where insults,
rumors and misinformation are traded as often as
stocks. Unfettered by requirements to identify
themselves, posters - people who "post"
messages on the boards - leave it up to board
readers to figure out whether they're looking at the gospel truth or being
manipulated by someone playing 25-cent swings in a $1 stock.

Some posters have multiple personalities, holding a conversation with themselves
by posting under a dozen or more aliases. Others are hired guns, paid by
publicly traded companies to spread good news to investors. Posters can be
small investors offering their two cents worth or disgruntled workers grinding axes
at their former employer's expense.

"Probably about 5 to 10 percent of the people on there are knowledgeable. The
others just want to be heard and seen," says Bill Talley, 64, a retired Honolulu
detective who posts occasionally on Yahoo's Fore Systems board.

Talley says he'd never make an investment decision based on what he sees on
message boards. But the amateur speculation, analysis and gossip can cause
serious problems for a company's stock price or employee morale.

"You usually do not see sophisticated investors barking in the Internet," says Bill
Thomas, a Buchanan Ingersoll lawyer who's counseled companies victimized by
false information posted on message boards. It's an experience he calls "getting
Yahooed," a reference to one of the biggest message board operators.

"It is a fact of life that companies are going to have to deal with," Thomas says.

Romper Room's Ground Rules

A message board, also known as a chat room, is a site on the Internet where
people discuss similar interests by posting messages that can be read by
everybody looking at the board. They can post messages of their own, either
responding to the current topic or suggesting one of their own.

Some of the most popular stock boards are run by Yahoo!, Motley Fool, Silicon
Investor and The Raging Bull, which set up boards based on investor interest (see
accompanying box). Users access the boards by typing in a stock's ticker
symbol. People must register with the operator and choose an alias before
posting messages. "Lurkers," people who just want to read the boards, don't
have to register.

How many messages are posted varies considerably, with some small,
unprofitable companies attracting much more interest than big stocks. Take the
case of Biocontrol Technology, a small Indiana, Pa., company that's lost $120
million in recent years. Even though its stock's trading for about 15 cents, there
are more than 22,000 messages on Yahoo's Biocontrol board. That compares
with more than 38,000 messages on Yahoo's Microsoft board and fewer than 300
posts at Yahoo's H.J. Heinz board.

"If there's a stock out there people want to talk about, we feel they have a right to
talk about it," says Rusty Szurek, Raging Bull's vice president. "If investors use
message boards correctly, they can be one of the most powerful mediums out
there."

Szurek says 1,500 to 2,000 messages are posted daily on Raging Bull's 2,300 or
so boards. Like most other board operators, Raging Bull doesn't screen or edit
the messages, although it does lay down ground rules similar to those adopted
by its competitors. Obscene, vulgar, defamatory or unlawful material is
prohibited. Posters are limited to one alias so they cannot sway investor opinion
by posting multiple messages bolstering their point of view.

However, operators rely on message writers to enforce the rules or bring problem
posters to their attention. For operators to police the boards, "You would have to
have a staff of hundreds of people," says Jill McKinney, Silicon Investor's
Webmaster.

She says Silicon Investor's policy of charging posters - $100 annually or $200
lifetime - "keeps the quality of the site higher because it's more restricted." If
board users bring obscene or other unlawful or offensive material to Silicon
Investor's attention, the company investigates and can warn, suspend or
terminate posters.

"We suspend and terminate people daily," says McKinney, who couldn't provide
figures on how often board users are disciplined.

It's not often enough for companies who say they've been victimized on the
boards.

"Clearly, these [board operators] are not in the business of governing what is said
on those boards," says Thomas of Buchanan Ingersoll.

Who Are You?

One of the biggest complaints companies have about the boards is that most
posters hide behind the shield of anonymity.

"What's to prevent people from saying anything they want or making up
something?" asks Jim Leonard, spokesman for J&L Specialty Steel. "Any
knowledgeable person should realize that these message boards are nothing
more than a form of electronic graffiti."

Philip Services, a Hamilton, Ont., company plagued by accounting problems and
losses from copper trading, has gone to court to find out who was making
defamatory remarks about executives and female employees.

"This is not an issue of freedom of speech. This is an issue of what is clearly
deemed to be unlawful behavior," says Philip spokeswoman Lynda Kuhn. "I don't
think you can write off chat rooms as innocuous."

She says the company got Yahoo to remove offending messages from the board
and has convinced judges to order Internet service providers - companies that
provide posters access to the Internet - to identify the offending posters. Some
individuals posted messages under a number of aliases, essentially carrying on a
conversation with themselves, Kuhn says. One person used more than 20
names, she says.

Szurek says there have been few complaints about people using multiple aliases
on Raging Bull. The board operator gives users an ignore option, which lets them
screen out posters who are obscene, vulgar "or otherwise nontolerable," he says.

"We don't have many hypers - [people who tout stocks] - on our board because
they know they can be ignored at the touch of a button," Szurek says.

No Comment

Most experts say companies should be aware of what's on the boards, but are
better off not responding. If they do answer, they must follow the same rules for
issuing a public statement: There can't be any material misstatements or
omissions of fact.

"They have to be very careful that they don't trip over themselves by giving only
half of the information. That is probably the biggest trap waiting out there for a
company," says Thomas.

The Buchanan Ingersoll attorney says companies can tell operators that boards
contain false information and that legal action is possible, but little usually comes
of that. Says Silicon Investor's McKinney: "You'll get a lot of stuff on legal
letterhead ... but it takes a lot to get a court order and it takes a lot more when
[the company] is out of state."

Mellon spokesman Gregg Stein says the bank's policy of not commenting on
message board rumors and speculation is just an extension of the bank's policy
of not commenting on the same things when reporters ask about it. Mellon
issued a policy in June prohibiting employees from posting messages on stock
boards while they are at work.

Small companies can be hurt more by rumors than large companies with a big
base of institutional investors, says Louis M. Thompson Jr., president of the
National Investor Relations Institute, a professional group for shareholder relations
managers. But no matter what the size of the company, it's probably safest not
to respond to rumors, he says.

Investor Beware

If companies find message board information hard to manage, what about the
investors the boards are supposed to serve? Not only must they judge a poster's
motives, they have to decide if the poster is who he says he is and if he is in a
position to know what he says he knows.

For example, what would you make of Bball_Superstar, who posted this
message on Yahoo's Weirton Steel message board after one poster suggested
the steelmaker had solid management:

"Take it from someone who knows,if (sic) this company could get the type of
management that is required to run a successful buisness, (sic) then this steel
mill would be making money hand over first," Bball_Superstar wrote.

Click on her profile and you'll discover this "someone who knows" is a single
female whose interests include cheerleading and The Backstreet Boys, a music
group popular with the prepubescent.

On Yahoo's Biocontrol board, a poster named Waldo Popper plays a game called
Chat Room Poker. The object is to post false or misleading information about the
company and see how many readers respond with messages of their own. Some
players even provide links to other Internet sites where there's more allegedly
valuable information about the company. Points are awarded based on how many
users respond, the lengths of their response and whether they show up at the
other Internet sites.

"Now you really know how wacked (sic) your valuation is when you compare it to
my mindless drivel of made-up numbers and say [we] were close," Waldo Popper
slammed someone in a message Tuesday.

Despite such charades, some message board users keep coming back for more.

"There is a lot of good stuff out there," says Nevin Cumpston, a 32-year-old
Washington, Pa., steelworker who monitors boards for Allegheny Teledyne and
other stainless steel producers "to keep up on what the people are saying and
how they feel."

"There's no limit to the amount of knowledge you can get, but at the same time
you have to be able to muddle your way through the cream to get to the milk,"
Cumpston says.

But when it comes to investing based on message board material, Cumpston is a
lot more circumspect.

"I wouldn't personally vote my entire portfolio on the information," he says.