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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Pharmos(PARS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ariella who wrote (1270)	9/20/1998 12:42:00 AM
From: InvestorLady	Respond to of 1491

Seragan sounds like a soap opera backed by people who didn't know the R&D side of drug development or the business side. Nothing like PARS who are backed by big brothers IN the biz, not wannabees making a bet on hope. Good luck all, this is a long term hold stock rather than a trading or pop up stock. :-) Lady

To: Ariella who wrote (1270)	9/20/1998 2:46:00 AM
From: Filbert	Respond to of 1491

I do not think that investing in a biotech is like oil drilling or "wildcatting". The development of a drug for specific treatments and whether or not they will work is very risky however. How effective and whether or not the product will be accepted by physicians and patients is another question as well. So they have to be considered high to very high risk. But an oil well hits or doesn't. There is oil or there is not. In medical products, the drugs have clinical trials. The companies report on those trials and we make our decisions. Most of us bought into Lotemax and Alrex. We are waiting for the clinical results on HU211, Phase II. Between what the study results are (often not as conclusive as we'd like) and the tone that the company places on the press release/presentation/etc., people will react according to what they perceive. For those of us with some technical training, we will take the information and process as best we can the clinical data to which we have access. Others will rely on these analyses here or just read what they can from the data. What I'm trying to say, (in a long winded way), is that there are a lot more gradations of thought and data to analyze in a biotech/medical product stock than in an oil drilling type of stock, (that is somewhat unfair, unless one's geological knowledge can encompass the drilling locations, rock type, etc. But I only invest in things that I understand or have knowledge of, hence for me medical stock and tech stocks, but I digress). One of the problems with biotech/med stocks was highlighted a bit in the article. John Silber "believed" and believed in a big way. People believe in these products with an almost religious zeal. Faith is necessary in other aspects of life, but not in technical products. Data and product performance over a wide biological range in diverse circumstances will tell the true story. Sometimes company people will mislead, put too positive a spin, hype, interpret incorrectly, or lie. Can't help that. It is just part of the game. A while ago I cautioned about a timeline for HU211 and outlined some possible scenarios for delays. Getting a product to work when one is making small batches for small trials is one thing, but scaling it up for large clinical trials and making it work EVERY TIME is something else altogether. Many companies underestimate the time, the money, and the engineering that it will take to bring the product to market. They do the upfront work very well, but the development and engineering take a back seat, and it kills a lot of good products. When you review a biotech company staff, the R&D folks will almost always be Ph.D. chemist, biochemists, etc. with strong research backgrounds, a list of publications and patents, and NO record of getting products to market. In my humble opinion, this is why a lot of companies get diced. There are millions of people with good ideas, there are much fewer who know how to get them to a point where they can be approved, marketed and sold. The only way a company generates earnings is to have a product to sell. I like Pharmos because they do the research and development and find other companies to scale the product up. They are targeting an improved side effect profile with usable drugs for their business and that should be effective. Lotemax and Alrex are completed. The other products are in the pipeline. I am staying for awhile. Until I don't like the data or the products. I could go on for pages, but I think I'll stop here. Filbert

To: Ariella who wrote (1270)	9/22/1998 2:42:00 PM
From: crysball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1491

Scientists in the Candy Store PARS is emerging from a the 'Scientists in the Candy Store' phase of their organizational development. This phase was marked by trying to taste too many different kinds of scientific opportunities, without having adequate controls and discipline. Additionally, a pharmaceutical development company has little control over the tortuous timeline to get a new drug to market and they universially underestimate the cost/time/effort/difficulty to accomplish this, and are also too optimistic about Murphy's Law, as the additional Phase III Lotemax study for Uveitis illustrated [note this was totally beyond PARS control, but still part of reality]. That said, and with a severly depleted resouce base, they have made a disciplined [although extremely painful] recovery. They are focused, disciplined, and have added strength in the financial controls arena. They mae several painful decisions and now need to execute the plan as laid out by Dr. Aviv. I've been in PARS since 96, and have added to my position on at least 11 ocassions. I remain convinced they have an outstanding business model which will bear fruit for those patient enough to endure. Their pipeline is well balanced, and really quite amazing for a company of this size. As previously stated PARS is my #1 postiion in my portfolio, and while I have at times been impatient with the speed of events, PARS is primed to be a very successful [although undervalued] company.