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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (7475)	9/20/1998 2:10:00 AM
From: Dennis J.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34811

Beebs, I share your suspicion and your curiosity. The deflationary period which some are forecasting would make comparisons with all corrections of recent years questionable, since the corrections were in a long bull market with growth and rising prices (and expectations) abounding. Few were thinking about preservation of capital. Add to that the global recessionary possibilities from a significant Y2K problem and its aftermath, and caution seems prudent. Too many unknowns. There will be a time to be blatantly contrary, and even to be early. And p&f will be there to guide us, too. I will wait and watch for even more signals, bullish support lines, etc. Appreciate all your posts. Dennis

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (7475)	9/20/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 34811

Stocks Relative to 52-Week Highs Average Close as Percent of Percent of Pctg of 52-wk High Stocks above 90% Stocks 80-89.9% 8/31 low 57.7% 3.1% 9.0% 9/04 58.9% 3.7% 10.6% 9/11 60.0% 5.6% 11.4% 9/18 61.5% 8.2% 12.4% Looks more like Armageddon has already been here. (Note: the above includes both NYSE, OTC, and ASE stocks) The average stocks was about 90% of its 52-week high back last Fall and 86% in April.

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (7475)	9/20/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 34811

Hi Beebs, Looks like some others have already answered the question for me. Fortunate, since I would not have been able to answer it very effectively. I am currently in the camp of "we have seen the bottom, but it is going to be a rocky climb back up". I believe in the NYSE BP as a forward indicator. But if you remember when it reversed down a few months ago, we still had a couple more months of positive movement in some of the larger averages (e.g. DJIA) before armageddon struck. So can we have more down days in the DJIA and other averages? Absolutely and I expect them. Am I looking to buy stocks on the long side? Absolutely. Right now I am using the DJIA as a general short term indicator. This may be unconventional for P&F, but it is working for me. The P&F chart for the DJIA very much reflects the resistance, support and general trends that are being focused on in other threads. And as I have said, it is a general trend up, with a trading range of 450/500 pts. Again as I have stated earlier, if the DJIA breaks out of the trading range, I will modify what I am doing. If you follow my posts, you will note that I was generally bearish up until the NYSE BP actually reversed. Jan and others saw the reversal coming, but I am a little slow and waited until it actually reversed to publicly state that I am now bullish. That doesn't preclude me from buy puts on the very same day as we were at the top of our trading range. So, I know that I took a very circuitous route to answering your question and even missed a couple of points. But the general answer is I am not in the camp that is predicting armageddon, however if the indicator that I am using right now (DJIA) breaks through support, I will get a little more defensive. Tom