To: long-gone who wrote (19359 ) 9/20/1998 12:49:00 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 116759
Warning: widespread downtrend ahead Wall Street, By Alan Deans There is good news and bad news about the outlook for Wall Street. First, the bad news is that earnings for the third quarter are now forecast to slump marginally, the first time that profits would have failed to grow in seven years. For those with a memory for these things, that dates back to before the start of the great stockmarket boom. Yet it is just the latest step in a worrying downward trend that goes back to the peak of the profits cycle in mid-1995. The good news is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to have priced much of this gloom into stocks. However, that does not mean shares will recover soon from their sub-8000 point level. That depends on how long the present earnings recession lasts. On Friday, a combined options expiry day saw the Dow close a moderate 21.9 points higher at 7895.6 - up on the week but still down for the year. Consensus forecaster First Call says expectations are for a 0.2 per cent slump in earnings this quarter, but it warns this could worsen to 3 per cent. The sectors to be worst hit are commodity-related, including paper, steel, oil and chemicals. But stockbroking, the source of solid earnings growth in recent times, is also among those ready to be hammered. Estimates are for a decline of 32 per cent over a year ago. Salomon Smith Barney has analysed the sectors in the hope of finding a star. John Manley concludes that the deterioration will be widespread, but he has come up with heath-care companies, including drug manufacturers, as a sector where growth should exceed 10 per cent. Clearly, these are dangerous times for investors to be buying. Earnings growth for the fourth quarter is certain to be cut considerably from First Call's 10.8 per cent consensus figure, prompting more price weakness as the year draws to a close. Like a sick patient holding out for a healthy prognosis, the only real hope for a sustained turnaround is for a cut in official interest rates. Such a shot in the arm would spur investors to review sectors with growth potential and engage in some healthy bargain hunting. Mr Manley pinpoints technology stocks as one group that, while it is likely to have a decline in earnings during the present quarter, is at or near bottom. The market rallied last week in the hope that such external influences would boost prices. But there are still dark clouds hanging around. The darkest of the lot could break today with the release in Washington of the videotape of President Bill Clinton's grand jury testimony, plus numerous appendices. While the Lewinsky scandal has had little direct effect on stock prices, impeachment deliberations are becoming bitter. Should it become a drawn-out process, it will do little to create a confident environment for investing. There is also continuing global uncertainty. Despite his speech about spurring international growth and saving the US economy, people are sceptical about President Clinton and the G7's ability to deliver quickly in the war they declared on deflation. Wall Street's daily ups and downs are still dictated by movements on the battered Tokyo stock market as much as any other factor. afr.com.au