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The News and Observer (Raleigh, NC)
September 17, 1998 Thursday, FINAL EDITION
SECTION: BUSINESS; Pg. D1
LENGTH: 1309 words
HEADLINE: Y2K plagues utilities
BYLINE: Karin Schill, Staff Writer
BODY:
As the nation's big power companies scramble to correct a computer glitch some fear could cause major outages at the stroke of midnight Jan. 1, 2000, municipal electric systems in North Carolina are only now beginning to assess the Year 2000 problem.
That means 470,000 ElectriCities customers statewide could be in for a rough ride during the first days of the new millennium, experts warn. There is also concern that some of the state's 28 rural electric cooperatives, which serve 1.7 million customers, are behind in their preparations for the Year 2000 switch.
Commonly known as the Y2K bug, the problem stems from the inability of computers and electronic equipment to read dates in 2000. In the past, programmers never included dates past 1999. If the bug is left uncorrected, equipment could either shut down or get confused.
"Is it going to be a Dark Ages issue, where we'll be out of power for months and months? I don't think so," said Rick Cowley, an expert on industry Year 2000 solutions for TAVA/R.W.Beck, a Seattle-based consulting firm that recently started working with city-owned power systems in North Carolina.
"But there will potentially be pockets of problems and those problems will primarily, I believe, result from smaller companies not being prepared."
And what might that mean for towns like Clayton, Hillsborough and Wake Forest after they toast to the new millennium less than 16 months from now? Billing problems, service hold-ups and maybe even citywide blackouts, according to Cowley and other experts.
The North American Electric Reliability Council will present its first report to the U.S. Department of Energy today outlining how the nation's key electric suppliers are addressing the Year 2000 problem.
Although a Senate committee investigating the computer bug recently warned about "the very real prospects of power shortages as a consequence of the millennial date change," Carolina Power & Light, Duke Energy and North Carolina Power say they expect all their "critical" systems to function properly by the middle of next year.
The three utilities plan to spend a combined $ 94 million and thousands of staff hours this year and next to make sure all computer code has been rewritten and vulnerable equipment replaced in time for the millennial switch.
What will happen with North Carolina's municipal power systems and electric cooperatives is not as clear. Most say they're in good shape, but no overall survey has been completed of what state their systems are in, what needs to be fixed and how much it will cost.
Unlike the large, investor-owned power companies and - to a degree - electric cooperatives, municipal power systems aren't regulated by the state or federal government. That means it's up to city utilities directors, many of whom lack the budget and expertise to address a complex computer problem, to make sure their public power systems don't crash, experts warn.
Gene Bailey, management information services manager for ElectriCities, a Raleigh-based organization that represents North Carolina's public power cities, also worries his members are running out of time.
"This is one time when we need to kind of listen to some of the hype because there are some real concerns," he said.
Last week, the city of New Bern kicked off an ElectriCities-sponsored pilot project to determine what systems in the city-owned power grid should be fixed. Using a software program developed by TAVA/R.W. Beck, ElectriCities hopes to get a better picture of what needs to be addressed in a typical mid-sized municipal power system.
For three days, technicians pried into electronics embedded in New Bern's electric substations, generators and power breakers to catalogue information hidden in thousands of tiny microchips that might cause Year 2000 snags. The software program will determine whether the chips are compliant and what must be done if they're not.
If successful, the program could then be distributed to the remaining 50 public power cities that express an interest, Bailey said.
Ralph Puckett, New Bern's electric utilities director, is confident his 16,000 customers will have power Jan. 1, 2000.
"We should be able to have a plan and go ahead (with the work) later this fall," he said. "There should be enough time."
Jane Pritchard, a spokeswoman for the North Carolina Electric Membership Corp., which represents the electric cooperatives, said her organization has set up an internal task force to focus on the Year 2000 problem.
"We're aware of the challenges and looking at our systems," she said.
The ominous glitch goes back to the computer industry's early years, when each digit ate up memory and programmers had to abbreviate to fit information into their electronic files. It became an industry practice to write "76" instead of "1976," for instance, even though many knew at the time it would cause problems later on. The crisis hits when the clock strikes 12:01 a.m., 2000, and millions of computers worldwide go haywire because they think the year is 1900.
In a massive effort to avoid plane crashes, massive billing problems and devastating mid-winter power outages, the United States expects to spend between $ 40 billion and $ 200 billion in the next 16 months to try to correct an estimated 157 million software functions.
But it was only a few months ago that the official spotlight focused on the power industry. Dick Mills, a power engineer for Digital Year 2000 Expertise Center in Albany, N.Y., says the attention is overdue.
"We're at a level now where we should have been two or three years ago," he said.
A Senate Committee on the Year 2000 problem held its first hearing on the issue in June.
"I am personally concerned that the Y2K problem is receiving so little public attention," Sen. Bob Bennett, a Utah Republican and chairman of the committee, said when opening the hearing. "My greatest fear is that when it does become a matter of general concern, it will bring with it a measure of panic that will be detrimental to effective and efficient remediation of the problems that present themselves."
He also presented a survey of the nation's 10 largest oil, gas and electric utilities that the committee concluded were lagging in their preparations. Only two of the utilities surveyed had completed initial assessments of their automated systems, and four were unable to say how many such systems they had.
In North Carolina, the state isn't sounding such alarms.
A Year 2000 committee headed by members of the state Utilities Commission's public staff surveyed CP&L, Duke Energy and North Carolina Power this summer and followed up with presentations. So far, it's been very pleased with the companies' efforts to address the computer glitch, said Jimmie Little, a member of the committee.
They are currently completing a survey of the electric cooperatives and will include the results in a report to the Utilities Commission later this month, Little said. Because they're not regulated by the state, municipal power systems will not be assessed.
Jim Maughn, administrative manager for the Southeastern Electric Reliability Council, said his organization is trying to get the word out to the region's smaller electric utilities, including city-owned systems. He cautioned against the doomsday scenarios painted by some Year 2000 commentators.
"This is an overwhelming task in terms of its magnitude, but I don't think the electric industry views it as a panic situation," he said. "
Meanwhile, Little and his colleagues plan to monitor what they can during the next year. They hope a new Year 2000 page added to the commission's website (http://www.ncuc.commerce.state.nc.us) will also help in getting the word out.
"Our main concern," Little said, "is to let utilities know that we expect them to be on top of this." |
