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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (6988)	9/20/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Fleckenstein is not God just contrarian with really simple premise Why buy super low chips, when oil killed even more and why buy oil if wheat is cheaper....ultimately why buy today if tomorrow you can buy cheaper...that is if one subscibes to deflation theory.....Japan of the past 8 years is a great example of this theory at work.....or cycle...

To: Ian@SI who wrote (6988)	9/20/1998 9:43:00 PM
From: David Rosenthal	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, I think my Achilles Heel is reading a post which spouts the most outlandish statements imaginable as if they came directly from God's mouth. The original post is nothing but a logical argument. I used Compaq to illustrate that the PC market is having trouble maintaining growth and has resorted to pricing that requires more unit sales then the market can sustain (thus their current lack of profitability). The argument then extrapolates the effects of oversupply and the threat of recession to the PC markets and by implication, semiconductors in general. It is prefaced continually by in my opinion and if you are confusing me with an omniscient being I am here to tell you that I have no such illusions.<G> I hardly see the outlandishness of taking observations in existing oversupply situations like DRAM and extrapolating them into others where similar pricing behavior is observed. I posted some thoughts early in the year on the AMAT thread that PC demand may be slowing. This was before the PC inventory correction was widely reported on. The main evidence came from bad business conditions for contract manufacturers and component suppliers like JBL and ARW. This directly indicates lower end-product demand and has been in place for a couple of quarters. I wondered, if the problems were in Asia, why were contract manufacturers that supply the U.S. market seeing a slowdown. At the same time back-end equipment suppliers were seeing business drying up and orders canceled and I considered this corroboration of weak end-product demand. Since you mentioned Mike Burke having accurately predicted the DRAM debacle you should also observe his current opinion on PC's. He thinks they are becoming commodity products and is expecting all of the boxmakers to eventually suffer (hope I got that one right Mike). Look, I appreciate these discussions and SI as a vehicle to make better investment decisions. My original post, though addressed to you, was thrown out to the thread. Pound my arguments with facts or logic and by all means bring evidence that business conditions are picking up again. Dave