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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (28442)	9/20/1998 4:31:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Tippet, Obviously a possibility. And I totally agree that many are in this market who shouldn't be... and THOSE people may ultimately determine the course of the market... especially if we get much further down. Well, a meteorite COULD take out LA... if you are looking for what might happen to cause the NEXT big one. Bill

To: yard_man who wrote (28442)	9/20/1998 6:10:00 PM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Tippett, I was just going through Mr. Hueb's profile since I seem to have gotten into a TA dialogue with him and wanted to see what he's been up to. I noticed your remark about the non-linearity of the last few years. I think you will be surprised to find that the trend on the DJIA since 11/94 has been excruciatingly linear. The previous accelerations into the current trend took the avg. from 800 in '82 to 1600 at the low of '87. From there it accelerated to 2350 in '90. Then accelerated again to get to 3612 in '94. The acceleration that began in '94 is still intact but there's a line that basically constitutes the supply/demand dynamic of this current leg that has been tested several times. It is anchored by the lows on 11/23/94 and 10/27/95. The line was violated in '96 and the market returned to it. Now we have another violation. Since the violation, the market has been trying to "decide" if the supply/demand dynamic that the line represents is still valid. Friday's close was right on the line. The current acceleration, which is now crossing 7200 actually uses the July '96 low. Just some historical trend background to correct the perspective that the market has been doing anything parabolic since the '95 setting of the current trend. I realize this is a bunch of nonsense to many but supply/demand is the name of the game and I think that dynamic is illustrated by trendline analysis rather than doing psychanalysis on the whole investor population. Doug R