To: limtex who wrote (8313 ) 9/20/1998 7:29:00 PM From: Bernard Levy Respond to of 12468
limtex, Steve B and others: I cannot let statements indicating we are facing the worst market downturn or economic crisis in history unchallenged. I was not around during the great depression, but I was around during the 73-74 period. During this time span all three economic blocks (US, Japan, Europe) went into recession at the same time. Commodity price inflation (oil and others) went through the roof, unions had a stranglehold over the US and European economies, government regulation and price controls were stifling many sectors of the economy which have been since deregulated (oil, gas, airlines, telco, banking, securities, utilities), government deficits were increasing... There is no way on earth that the current situation where two of the 3 economic blocks (US and Europe) are healthy is comparable. We have not been in a recession since 90-91, so a 99 recession is quite possible, accompanied by the normal decline in stock prices (in the tech sector most of the decline is behind us), but calling this period the worst in history is completely unjustified. As Gentleman-Boyle pointed out on the Yahoo thread, a recession would not be the end of the world for WCII, since RBOCS would probably slow down their xDSL capital expenditures. Competitors such as ARTT would find it difficult to raise capital. Please remember that although the 70s and early 80s were marked by economic stagnation and decline, it is during this period that the cable companies and competitive long distance carriers (MCI and Sprint) built their businesses. So, companies with superior business plans can succeed in any economic environment. Best regards, Bernard Levy