To: jlallen who wrote (4056 ) 9/20/1998 8:09:00 PM From: Hiram Walker Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 67261
jlallen, last comment, no reply necessary. If Clinton goes quickly it will help my portfolio, hey Clinton get the hell out. To dispense with the unknowable first: I don't think anyone knows how the sorry Clinton saga is going to work out. My own view is that a Clinton departure would probably improve the perception of the world towards the US ability to exercise leadership -- this awful, debilitating uncertainty will have been lifted. The whole affair has served as a monumental distraction over the last few months. Further, unlike Watergate, a Clinton departure would not serve as the indictment of an entire system, merely as confirmation of the frailties of one individual. And as long as Greenspan and Rubin remain in charge, I doubt that any kneejerk reaction to a Clinton departure would result in sustained dollar selling, because it would not change in any fundamental way the outlook for macroeconomic policy in the United States. And herewith the first important plank in the framework that has served me well in currency forecasting: the currency markets are perhaps the most exquisite barometer of market sentiment, and it is vital to make a stab at guessing what is priced in, hard though it is. The markets have been fretting about a Clinton departure all summer, and if a resolution that results in a Clinton exit either because of resignation or impeachment is a long drawn out and tortuous process it will have little impact when it finally occurs. A quick departure on the other hand would end the uncertainty and would soon result in some relief. Who cares about fairness,truth or justice, I could use a 20% bounce here to pay lawyers fees. Hiram