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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (13865)	9/21/1998 2:22:00 AM
From: Peter V	Respond to of 18691

Asian markets on the ropes tonight. Tomorrow should be interesting, with the holiday for a number of traders.

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (13865)	9/21/1998 2:24:00 AM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

JTC, Japan is getting crushed tonight, along with the rest of asia. Japan is down over 2% as I write this. I would guess Europe follows asia. Trading should be thin today because of the Jewish holiday so we may see some big price movement. Last week felt like a good old fun short squeeze/put squeeze with sept options expiring. I would feel more confident about the market heading down except that many people still have Oct puts which the big boys would like to vaporize. Thus the crash or retest of the lows may not happen till after those Oct options expire. The safe play here is to buy Nov puts since there will almost certainly be a fall within that timespan. I think the Clinton soap opera is a nonevent as far as the market is concerned. What is happening is due to two things: the asian crisis inflicting long term damage on the world economy, and finally finally finally US investors starting to realize that the salad days of 15% growth are over for a while. Remember that for the first 6 months of the year they were in denial, fortunately for me, as I played that denial for some huge gains on the long side. Now I am waiting for excessive pessimism to surface, or October to draw to an end before going long again. We have such a huge surfeit of optimism that it will take several "crashes" for several months before pessimism really surfaces. I hope to play these bear market rallies in the future, now that I sat out the first one, which was unbelievably lucrative. As to short candidates, I think elnk is good for at least a 15 point decline. And amzn still has another 50% decline coming, I think. Keep up the suggestions, as now is definitely the time to start loading up on puts/shorts.