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To: Carl R. who wrote (38731)	9/21/1998 7:05:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

>>When their trades haven't gone well, there is always someone else to blame, lies from PR, funny accounting, touting from Dan Niles, Tom Kurlak or whoever.<< carl, the facts, in my case, are that i'm down since i began trading mu, but not by too much. i've gained and lost much more than i'm down on mu in my long ira portfolio - and it isn't all that big. let's discuss what you list as "excuses." lies from pr. i've never said they ied to the point that anybody can prove it. however, they do mislead people badly. it is kind of like me saying that my salary will double next year to get a pretty girl to marry me. it could happen... it won't happen. ;-) same with mu. do you dispute any of the following: 1. tom kurlak saying that mu was in the "best of all worlds" in august 1997 (think long and hard what has happened since and see if it defines "best of all worlds" ;-) of course, i tore him a new behind when he said jibberish like this while dram pricing was collapsing. was this a positive spin based on nothing resembling reality? absolutely. 2. kip saying demand for dram continues to remain strong in aug/1997 (while one of mu's execs was selling lots of shares in the high $40s). i'll let the results of the last year define whether whether that positive spin was warranted or or not. 3. it was said korea was thought to be out of inventory as of last december about the time mu was filing their 10q that said they didn't have a clue about korea's inventory. was that based in reality. i said at the time they were wrong. they were dead wrong. 4. changing their accounting practice to not carry inventory at market when that became inconvenient is also cheesy, imho. these touts were not why i'm slightly down on mu bearish stance. it is the fact that 1. people value liquidity so mu is propped up a little. 2. investors choose to not think for themselves and believe the aforementioned trash that companies spew as gospel. i've given several examples above. i know that mike burke is up 500-1000% on mu since he turned bearish. not bad for being so "wrong," huh? not sure about trey, but i don't think he was bearish the whole time. he was bullish until mu hit the mid $40s or so (darn good call, too). now, is mu's business better than in 1996? 1997? has it steadily declined? are they a money loser with more debt? yeah. their stock is also dow over 60% off 1995 values. what sand can the bulls build their house on now? 1. that pc dram demand will magically double in 4 months as per kip. carl, it ain't gonna happen. do you really believe kip when he spits that garbage? in any case, some of the synapsed challenged do. 2. the txn acquisition will be touted as enabling mu to be profitable "very soon." is that in terms of carbon half lives? you never know ;-) but i do know the 10q will be submitted with language to the effect of they can't guarantee profits (but they won't mention this ;-) 3. people actually believe that closed fabs will never be turned on again and mu can mint money like crazy. either that or nobody even thinks beyond their nose and so truning a switch to start mega production doesn't even enter their pea brains. ;-) i do think mu is as likely to go up strongly as it is to go down strongly. my only conviction is that it will go somewhere strongly. btw, i only hope for another similar opportunity where pricing collapses again while mu's price continues up. that was the opportunity of the year (and, btw, the time the bulls gave me the most crap ;-) to make 10-15 times one's money. i blinked and i lost out. i won't blink again in similar circumstances. please don't paint us bears as being out in left field. we've called mu's business deterioration better than any analyst and better than anybody in the industry. as a whole, we've made a lot more money than the bulls and, in my case, lost a lot less. also, the claim we make excuses is a little weak b/c we are ALWAYS right and mu is ALWAYS wrong when we go head to head. no debate. just verifiable facts. and i'm right again about their being wrong about their end of 98 dram prediction.

To: Carl R. who wrote (38731)	9/21/1998 11:07:00 AM
From: steve olivier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl, thanks for the background. I barley have the time to keep up with the daily posts since I started reading them, and clearly don't have the time to read 30K+ posts to gain the history. It is pretty easy to read these posts and figure out who has an axe to grind and who doesn't. I only know that to be successful one has to not hang on to bullish or bearish views forever. With things being so negative now, I am just trying to understand if there is anything that might change the current views and make these stocks something people will want to buy in 3 - 6 months. I don't have an engineering background, so I can't begin to contribute to any deep technical discussions. However, I recently read something that seemed to make sense regarding the supply / demand picture and the closing 16MB lines. This person indicated that while demand / supply is out of balance now, that this might not be the case when the 16MB fabs begin closing, as these fabs will not be competitive. This, plus bit growth, plus the consolidation / closures of fabs in general, may just mean that they (MU) will begin making money some day relatively soon??? And of course, you know that as soon as Mr. K speaks positively on MU, it will be up 25%. I wouldn't want to be short on that day!