TAVA and JJ mention...Embedded bug
'Systems on a chip' emerge as perhaps worst problem in universe of
millennial woes
ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS - Denver, CO, 09/21/98
As programmers rush to crush the Millennium Bug, they have found
a dark corner where the problem is difficult to detect and even
harder to fix.
Little noted a year ago, embedded systems now top the worry list
of those trying to solve the computer glitch that could shut down
manufacturing, medical and even consumer equipment.
And programmers now know that there is no single D-Day when the
bug, also called Y2K, will start its mischief. While midnight
January 1, 2000, remains the date most feared, the bug could also
strike at several other moments, beginning Jan. 1, 1999 and ending
on Feb. 29, 2000.
No one knows how many systems will fail or whether single
failures could cause a chain reaction, bringing down whole
manufacturing lines or even an electrical power grid.
But many experts say that some things are almost certain to go
haywire.
"I think it is axiomatic that there are going to be power
failures due to Y2K," said John Pike, an analyst with the Federation
of American Scientists, a Washington D.C.-based think tank. "The
only thing that is uncertain about it is how many are you going to
have and the extent to which the problem cascades."
The problem with embedded systems is just that -- they are
embedded. While programmers have relatively easy access to software
code and databases, most embedded systems contain "firmware" -- code
that is hard-wired into the system.
Even if technicians can determine that an embedded system's code
contains the bug, it most often cannot be rewritten. The system --
often consisting of a single postage stamp-sized microprocessor must
be replaced with one that is bug- free.
And that is not easy. Older chip designs are hard to come by, the
program compiler used to generate the executable code is often out
of date and those who knew the compiler have gone on to more
lucrative pursuits. Besides, some circuit boards are not designed to
have easily removable chips.
Often, replacing entire interrelated systems is the only
solution.
Embedded systems control timing of elevators, pressure in
pipelines and even the functioning of automatic transmissions.
Experts say billions were manufactured last year.
John Jenkins, CEO of Englewood-based TAVA Technologies, says
there is hope.
"I'm not someone who runs around and bangs a gong and says the
sky is falling," said Jenkins, whose company has won Y2K fix-it
contracts with several major firms, including General Motors. "A lot
of these problems can be corrected by a reboot."
But some cannot. Overall, the failure rate of embedded systems
could be between 1 percent and 3 percent. But in special cases,
that number increases. At one hospital, technicians found that 10
percent to 15 percent of medical devices were not Y2K compliant,
Jenkins said. In some systems that use custom code, three in 10 had
Year 2000 problems.
Dr. Mark Frautschi a Maryland physicist and Y2K consultant says
that "more companies and organizations are waking up," and some are
not liking what they are finding. He estimated that 15 percent to
20 percent of the electric utility company's embedded systems have
Y2K problems.
It will be difficult to get all of those updated in time.
One problem is that it is difficult to get firms to audit their
systems. No one wants the liability of being wrong.
Even TAVA does not guarantee its work. Instead, it tracks the
manufacturers of thousands of control systems, flagging those that
have known date functions.
Frautschi stresses that manufacturers come and go and that chip
vendors often go overseas for cookie-cutter chips. He warns that
even if an embedded system does not appear to have any
date-sensitive function it well could have a calendar clicking
inside.
In what cases that will prove critical isn't known.
And that is one reason that that people are growing nervous.
"The most interesting thing is the lack of anything definitive,"
said Tim Scudder, vice president of the Connecticut computer
consulting firm GartnerGroup.
There is also uncertainty about when the problem will actually
begin.
Most attention had been given to the turn of the millennium when
computer shorthand for dates goes from 01/01/99 to 01/01/00. Unless
told otherwise, some computers and embedded systems will read the
new date as Jan. 1, 1900.
Computers and systems could think they have 100 years before they
have to execute the next line of code. Others will consider it
natural that people die before they were born.
But there are other possible problem dates. Since some
programmers have used combinations of the number nine to tell a
computer to reset, the first hurdle comes not on 01/01/00, but on
01/01/99, the first time two nines appear in the date field. The
system will be challenged again on January 9, 1999 when there will
be three nines in the date field and again on September 9, 1999 when
all numbers are nines.
The final questionable date comes on February 29, 2000 -- a
special leap year.
Pike, for one, says he would be astonished if all these dates
passed without a hitch, particularly because "people didn't even
start focusing on (embedded systems) until recently."
There are other clouds. Countries in Asia, which is suffering its
worst economic downturn since World War II, have slashed their
information technology budgets. GartnerGroup estimates that
Indonesia has reduced its IT spending by 80 percent.
And in Russia, where there is talk of severe food shortages,
fixing something as ephemeral sounding as a computer bug seems a
remote priority, at best.
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