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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MeDroogies who wrote (8425)	9/22/1998 3:16:00 AM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19080

me-- i disagree... here we go. say company x, a US consumer goods manufacturer that does little business out side of the US, makes a lot of investments to boost the bottom line. some of those are in foreign derivitives and other instruments that may be directly or indirectly effected by asia. this is what gives me cold sweats. the entire planet is so interconnected. asia may not directly effect us, but what about european countries that do a lot of business with asia and because of the problems there wont be able to buy much from the US. why should greenspan lower rates? i just dont get it. please explain WHY. as for the dow being fairly valued...i dont think so. as of q1, according to S&P if memory serves, positive suprises have not been greater than no suprises and negative suprises. in fact, negative suprises are increasing. what happens when companies realize they have to cut back on staffing to make the numbers and sustain profitablity? oh, i am not saying that in a bear market everything goes down. some, like ORCL i think, are going to be fine. but they may be hit a little at first as collateral damage. and yes, the economy is, right now, still pretty good. this will no doubt mean that this downturn is not so bad and will be of fairly short duration. but, it doesnt mean it wont happen. interest rates, as far as i am concerned do not dictate equity prices. sure, they can make stocks more attractive, but there are a few problems... 1) when fundies are declining, interest rates can go to xero and not have much of an effect...look at japan. thats part of their problem. 2)with declining rates, you run the risk of bonds becoming an attractive investment because of equity style returns. THAT can be very damaging. good luck to all, trey