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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (1136)	9/22/1998 10:21:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

I2: Re: "First of all, is it 'within one year' or 'sometime in 1999', most likely in spring or summer?" I will need my interpreter. Brinker sees new highs by next summer or within about a one year time frame. He says he has not penciled in a date and so he is intentionally being vague about it. He has stated that it could be earlier. I am less concerned about the vagueness as I am for the lack of rationale. I have no idea why he has such an extended time frame for new highs if this an intermediate correction and if they typically last from six weeks to six months as Brinker has stated. I have not heard a rationale yet for his extended time frame. I can speculate about what his reasons might be, but I would sure enjoy hearing it from Brinker's mouth. "Secondly, notice how Bob's targets are essentially unchanged since June and early July? At that time, he said that it was likely that gains for the next year would be less than 10%. I believe that corresponds approximately to the levels he's projecting now." Excellent point. Brinker would say that these are his minimum targets. I think what makes the targets a question are not so much the targets themselves but rather the time frame. Again, it would be great if Brinker would offer some rationale for his projection time frame. I will, however, give Brinker high marks for stepping up to the plate on several occasions and admitting that the correction exceeded his expectations.

To: Investor2 who wrote (1136)	9/23/1998 12:21:00 AM
From: Lars	Respond to of 15132

Investor2, >>> Secondly, notice how Bob's targets are essentially unchanged since June and early July? At that time, he said that it was likely that gains for the next year would be less than 10%. I believe that corresponds approximately to the levels he's projecting now. >>> Interesting point. I am glad that Bob has been much more specific lately. Even so, no one knows. I wonder if the next run up will be over 10,000? by mid year 99? At that point, if it happens, I will be going to cash. The people I know are buying. Period. I can't see how we won't push back to the 9000s. There is not a semi permanent fear of the market. I am shocked at the amount of people at work who are moving significant sums of money out of the 401k fixed account to the S&P 500 index fund. Eventually the mutual fund managers, etc. will start buying imho. If fact, I think it is starting. I think a sign that the bear is approaching will be when people get a clue on the internet stocks that aren't planning on + earnings for 4 yrs (assuming every person in the US orders 20 books per yr.) HA!