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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay8088 who wrote (2928)	9/22/1998 12:38:00 AM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

Jay, without a doubt and particularly without a clear track record YHOO is expensive. Relatively speaking I belive AMZN is more overvalued than YHOO and frankly I don't think AMZN is going to grow margin see the breif comparison below: Item YHOO AMZN Price/Book 61 107 Price/Sales 72 13 Emply's 386 614 Cash 143 340 Debit 0 332 6 mo revenue 71.4 203 income B4 spec charges 12.4 (25.1) special charges 44 5.4 operating margin ~95% ~24% depreciation 1% 5% Market Cap 9bil 4.2bil I belive AMZN's problem will be to grow margin. As they have grown the cost of sales as a percentage has stayed about the same. This 19% margin after depreciation is nothing to write home about. AMZN is the catalogue business without the catalogue, lowering the barrier to entry. Given that they will see competition from BK where are they going to go? If they focus on the "web catalogue bus." they better start focusing on cost now, as cost and efficiency will determine who cuts it down the road. However that won't be enough to keep the shareholders happy. If they acquire or reinvent themselves to provide additional services they risk alienating their channels to customers if they move to compete with the YHOO, AOL etc. Who knows what AMZN will be long term, right now they are a bookstore that has lackluster margins and poor profit potential. YHOO has great margins, a lot of users, and again the potential to accelerate earnings. Don't misunderstnd, I'm not buying this thing. The point is AMZN IMO is a "safer short" of the two. Anyway goode luck.

To: Jay8088 who wrote (2928)	10/7/1998 11:38:00 PM
From: Mad2	Respond to of 4634

Jay, I just got this from WSJ and thought of our discussion on Yhoo. __________________________________ TECHNOLOGY ALERT from The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition. Oct. 7, 1998 Yahoo! posted a strong third-quarter profit as revenue at the Web portal nearly tripled, beating even the most optimistic earnings estimates from Wall Street. FOR MORE INFORMATION, see: interactive.wsj.com __________________________________ VOICES EVENTS Could Yahoo's deal with AT&T help it make a name for itself as a full-fledged online service? What lessons can other would-be portal sites learn from Yahoo's success to date? Get answers to such questions and discuss Yahoo's earnings report with Salomon Smith Barney analyst Lanny Baker live at 8 p.m. EDT. Coming on Thursday: What is the future of on-line services? Where is the line between promotional e-mail and spam? Join Charles Ardai, president of Juno Online Services, on Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT for answers to these questions, and for a