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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (5042)	9/22/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Axel Gunderson	Respond to of 78486

James: Good post. This is the one that has been getting to me for a while: 3. What's the catalyst? Is it global depression? Have you read a newspaper lately? At least half the world is in a depression now. Where do you think Caterpillar was going to sell its next excavator, or Coke sell its next bottle of soda, and Gillette sell its next razor. These markets were their growth story a year ago. And it is spreading every day - just ask anybody you know in Brazil. How big a catalyst do you need? And there is no sign it is stopping. I keep reading that there is no danger of a global recession, blah blah blah. My question to those that take such a position is what would you read as a sign of such? Japan three quarters of shrinking GNP - recession. Coke and Gillette claiming reduced sales - these are the "inevitables" that are supposed to be able to sell product at all times. As for this person championing DELL, I say to them: show us how DELL is undervalued. Discounted free cash flow analysis, or projected earnings and multiples, whatever. Put down some numbers. Arguing how wonderful they are doesn't cut it. Axel

To: James Clarke who wrote (5042)	9/22/1998 8:55:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78486

Great post Jim

To: James Clarke who wrote (5042)	9/24/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78486

I can't resist responding to this: The big cap names have been mispriced for years now. The market is paying a huge premium for the combination of perceived liquidity and little bankruptcy risk. The reality is the just about everything else is in the midst of a bear market. IMHO right now the big caps and long term bonds are not being priced by economic decisions but as consumer items. While I have not been a buyer of either of these products, I do not presume to know when they will tank. But I do believe that it more likely that other segments of the beaten down market will rise first and as people gain more confidence in the smaller names which yield dividends and turn profits these luxury items will be priced more realistically. The one big name that I believe is an exception to this is MO. Having said this I recognize that you have certainly timed the market much better than I have.