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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raptech who wrote (5760)	9/22/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: William Epstein	Respond to of 7841

Raptech; All that you say is generally true. However, after 2 years it is self evident, even to an idiot that inventory must be kept in line with demand. Also you mentioned that demand improves product. In this industry it may work the other way around. Demand doesn't pick up by itself. I remember when the Barracuda was introduced. About 4-5 yrs. ago. Seagate's earnings zoomed. No one had anything like it. Other DD manufacturers struggled to catch up but Seagate had a better product for a long time. They were the only manufacturer offering a 5 yr. warranty because all HDs were expected to fail but not their's. Time has born out the confidence they had in their product. Now the other DDs have caught up and make equally good products. They waited until they were too far into their product cycle before doing an upgrade and I hear from the hackers that their 18gig. Cheetah HD is still not as reliable as it should be. They played out their string and we all paid for it. Currently, they seem to want it to change and they seem to believe that they can make it change. I think they got rid of a CEO who had become complacent and was making major business errors. For instance, I was puzzled when early in 98 Seagate decided to increase R&D by a very substantial figure, no explanation given. They were already spending a large part of revenue on R&D. Another thing that bothered me was that he oblivious to the fact the price of his company's stock was falling rapidly. He didn't seem to care what happened on Wall St.. The product cycle wasn't improving and except for rare announcements the stockholders were being told practically nothing about earnings expectations and then only with very terse explanations given, if any. High tech. is peculiar in that management has to be well grounded in business but must also have a visionary streak that seems more attuned to individual entrepreneurs. It's a rare combination. Apple is the best example that I know of. Entrepreneurs a often lousy, professional managers and professional managers often don't have the orginality of the entrepreneur. Yet both qualities are essential in the top management of high tech companies even very large high tech. companies. We may have to change the ways in which we train managers. PHOTOMAN/William Epstein P.S. Congrads. on your profit.