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Gold/Mining/Energy : KERM'S KORNER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (12406)	9/22/1998 8:22:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Respond to of 15196

MARKET ACTIVITY / Oil & Gas Indexes Wow, what a shocking find. The Oil and Gas Composite Index has risen 20.3% since reaching its 52-week low just three weeks ago. I didn't realize that. The index rebound is the strongest since the decline started in August of 1997. Looking at the sub-components, the Integrated Oil's Index has gained 17.6%, the producers have gained 23.4% since both reached their 52 -week low at the beginning of the month. The service group has fared only half as well, gaining 10.9% in the same period. September's gain only equaled the drop in August. Is this a positive sign for the short term? I don't know, but I remember a song when I was a wee youngster that reminded me "only fools rush in." What lies ahead of us that will impact the oil stocks. I have an answer, and it's not positive. EARNINGS REPORTS They will not be good and worse than the 2nd quarter reports. Just listened to CNBC and the oils, along with banks, are expected to be the worse of the worst among all sectors. FUTURE OPEC CUTBACKS Strong possibility we will see one in a month or two. However, I believe the effect will be only to stabilize oil prices with stocks performing in the same manner. Bottom line, let's be happy there has been a bit of recovery, but don't expect a continuous trend over the near term. Come WINTER, we will have a better feel as to where shares of oil and gas producers are headed. Yesterday, the TSE Oil & Gas Composite Index jumped 1.5% or 77.64 to 5236.35, thus keeping the September bounce in the right direction. Among the sub-components, the Integrated Oils gained 1.5% or 114.12 to 7630.14. The Oil & Gas Producers gained 1.7% or 79.17 to 4718.43. The Services Group just can't avoid being in harm's way, losing 0.8% or 12.11 to 1438.71. Looking at individual issues, Canadian Occidental, Petro-Canada, Amber Energy and Talisman Energy were among the most active on the TSE. Talisman Energy gained $1.55 to $32.80. Although they did not put out a news release, the operator of a consortum (including Talisman) operating in Algeria reported a successful well. Alberta Energy, one of the few companies this year whose stock has not plummeted, gained $0.95 to $33.25. The company has an offer on the table to buy out Amber Energy. Canadian Occidental Petroleum, who announced yesterday that they will be developing a new field in Australian waters, rose $0.90 to $25.90. Other leading net gainers on the TSE included Suncor Energy, Petro-Canada Crestar Energy and Stellarton Energy. On the downside, Denbury Resources fell $0.55 to $11.60 and Cabre Exploration $0.50 to $11.50. References for above comments can be found at; techstocks.com Message 5806612 Message 5806742 Message 5806468 Message 5803051

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (12406)	9/22/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15196

Kerm's Portfolio / Weight Listing Based upon closing prices of Monday 9/21/98, the following is a breakdown of issues comprising my portfolios. Anderson Exploration 2.47% Berkley Petroleum 4.18% Chieftain International 6.23% Crestar Energy 18.74% Northrock Resources 1.98% Paramount Resources 4.78% PennWest Petroleum 2.56% Petro-Canada 3.03% Poco Petroleums 2.23% Probe Exploration 2.03% Remington Energy 1.34% Rio Alto Exploration 2.40% Talisman Energy 7.52% Ulster Petroleums 5.51% Sub-total Level I 65.00% Bonavista Petroleum 2.31% Compton Petroleum 1.72% Cypress Energy 2.87% Genesis Exploration 6.43% Highridge Exploration 2.68% Pan East Petroleum 1.47% Spire Energy 1.68% Tethys Energy 3.25% Thunder Energy 3.38% Vermilion Resources 2.75% Westminster 2.30% Badger Daylighting 1.01% Enerflex Systems 0.97% Hyduke Capital 2.18% Sub-Total Level II 35.00% I'm satisfied with the ratio of dollars invested between Level I and Level II. I am not satisfied with the percentages for individual issues in both listings. I am far overweighted in Crestar Energy. However, the shares offer real value at present levels and I will continue to hold. I'm hopeing to see a buyout announced in the near future.