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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28581)	9/22/1998 8:49:00 AM
From: Joseph G.	Respond to of 94695

We had a discussion about this two weeks ago with I2 and others. To summarize, I don't see that neckline as major support, many important stocks are still way above, and many went right through it quote.yahoo.com. SPX and OEX did trade below the neckline earlier in Sept. Several broad indexes went right though it too. IMO, Bill has the last bullish straw right - that SPX and OEX have not decidedly broken the uptrend lines off '94, but, as I pointed out to him, DJIA, DJTA, R3000, W5000, NYSE composite all have already broke their respective uptrend lines. Note that R3000 includes all of SPX.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28581)	9/22/1998 8:51:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

So G-span is wrong, the US is an island of prosperity, the world economic situation is melting down but the old immigrants were right, the streets here are paved with gold? Well shoot, I need to go bet my house on calls then <g> Just kidding, I do see many bullish patterns on the charts but I think those that say the world situation is already priced into the markets are not looking deep enough. We only dropped 20%. Now that may sound like allot but 20% from "perfect" conditions and the conditions that exist now are allot different, more than 20%. We are staring at negative growth on the S&P so what do we do, make the average PE 100? Earnings are dropping like flies and yet stock prices continue to go up again. I agree that the fund money is causing much of it but it can't continue much longer. The 30 year just hit 5.15%. Something will have to give sooner or later and the only reason Japan went up is that te government threw pension money in near the close to prop it up. Reality will hit this market sooner or later and the later it is, the farther the fall will be. BWTHDIK Lee

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28581)	9/22/1998 9:01:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ, I am still a believer that for the time being that the market is still in a trading range. Untill we break the 200 day moving average, which is now around 8500 there is still no strong technical evidence that we are reversing to the upside. Additionally I see a major peak near 8700, which would need to be taken out to confirm an reversal to an UPTREND. I am just using the basic principal of higher highs and higher lows. So far we have produced a few higher lows which does indicate some movement upwards but so far the 8095 resistance was tested twice and it held. A break of 8095 would create a higher high, but is still a distance away from 8500 and 8700. I realise that by the time we get to 8500/8700 an upside opportunity would be loss. There is one more important resistance at 8300(but not as important as 8500 and 8700), which if broken, would probably be the first sign that the uptrend may be starting, but would require the confirmation of a break of 8500 and 8700. My feeling is that unless we break 8700 to the upside, we are still in a trading range which is just getting larger or just shifting upwards for the mid-term. Have noticed strong exuberance on this thread in both directions, and just hope that such strong feelings do not hurt ones ability to logically look at the market. If one is looking for very short-term(1 day) signals - The DOW will rally today in light of the futures being up 9. If the DOW does not close at its highs, this rally may not be as strong as you think. Of course a 1 day signal is not conclusive, and the following days actions need to be watched. Just be cautious, since it appears from your exuberance that you may be buying strong. I may be wrong about you buying strong right now, then you are just expressing your opinion exuberantly. Seeya