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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6565)	9/22/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: Jay Scott	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Henry, I've learned more from your posts about the emerging market crisis than from months of reading the financial press. Sounds like reform is the prescription, but as you implied, too much money is being made by those who control the purse strings in various countries. What is your take on Indonesia? Is it one of those countries that can be reformed? I know this isn't your area, but I've been keeping an eye on TLK Indonesia. It's either going away, or it's very cheap right now. Can't decide. Thanks, JS

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6565)	9/22/1998 8:08:00 PM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Henry, I agree on the need for real structural reforms in developing economies,but the implementation of the reforms really requires some subtlety and some regard for human and political realities. It's all very easy for an IMF bureaucrat to require new taxes, higher interest rates, and elimination of subsidies, but in many cases a government that takes these steps will quickly find the populace expressing its displeasure in the streets, bringing the economy to a complete standstill. Particularly in countries like Indonesia or the Philippines, where large numbers of people already live at survival levels. Economists frequently ignore these realities, finding them disturbingly unamenable to mathematical solution. But they are no less real because they cannot be accurately portrayed in computer models. The basic problem is that success in a globalized world requires immediate reform, while the actual process of political reform takes years, if not decades. I don't know the solution. I do know that any easy answer is almost certain to be wrong. Steve