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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20587)	9/22/1998 11:28:00 AM
From: Dragon 1	Respond to of 50167

Ike, it's now teetering around 1024-26. I am afraid today will be the reverse of yesterday when asian markets were down but US up. Last night Asian markets up but US tookk the lead heading down (at least now). I think earnings prospects begining to take hold.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20587)	9/22/1998 11:33:00 AM
From: Area51	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Thanks so much for continuing to share your market knowledge. Let those that demand perfection to continue to criticize and attempt to silence you, and also to attempt to impeach Clinton for his very human imperfections as this is simply human nature. (Didn't your mom teach you that trees that bear fruit tend to attract many stones ? ). Your calls on the market have been incredibly good overall, and have been of great assistance to me over the last months (especially when I have been smart enough to follow your advice). Take care, Garry

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20587)	9/22/1998 4:31:00 PM
From: Riskmgmt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Hello Ike; Glad to see you're back. It is amazing to me how quickly the thread degenerated in your absence. I would offer this advice to you. Please continue your postings and ignore the critics and the posts that offer no value. You created and made this thread something special and in doing so attracted other talented contributors. In looking at the thread posters over the last week most are names that I've never seen here before. Hold your ground Ike don't waste your time on some of these nonsense posts. Incidently, you are not a lone bull anymore, the P and F'ers have turned bullish. Dorsey was on CNBC today. Good trading, Ray

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20587)	9/23/1998 5:07:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 50167

Deflation is not like a mad dog which appears around the corner suddenly---it has telltale sign of tails in between his hind legs-Ike expounds on deflation mad dogs, drooling, and hind-legs of deflation.. A characterization and academic treatise of deflationary trends and madness.. Global markets are under pressure for wrong reason, deflation begins with high unemployment not with 4.5% near full employment level- Deflation like mad dog has tail encroached between its two hind legs, atleast the one's I have seen have these clear marking sometime accompanied by drooling is also a clear sign, the two hind legs of economy are capacity utilization and industrial production if these two signs show marked slow down below 70% to start with and clear drooling is observed like unemployment rises to 6 or 7% associated with have falling commodity prices and rising bond yields with falling demand we have a making of a `mad dog' or a deflation. Until these signs clearly appear I will not listen to what this fresh media tells me.. I will ofcourse watch with interest the ECI and hourly earnings to measure the temperature of the economy on these two fronts my measurements are not very negative, the wage pressures and core inflation is rising alongwith hourly earnings,, so for me managers fears will not become my obsessions, anyone who has delusions or obsessions will be hurt badly, this is quite academic and important that I should keep the bearing right.. Think of intellectual bankruptcy of these ''ice parlor and hamburger ' fund managers and `shorts' ofcourse who make things for their own convenience- one good reason being that ` Sensationalisation' of finance is a new art.. the only way they can ever see some sense of participation is to shift the blame of their own huge losses to someone else or to an external factor like impending catastrophe hitting the world . Now last night I saw this man David on TV he thinks we are going down 3000 points and interest rate cuts like in Japan will not be helpful nothing can be further from truth- when you have deflation you don't have wage pressures building up-- you don't have industrial production at record high level the consumer confidence is not at the present level and capacity utilization is well below 50 and not above 81; the harbingers of this new mantra just overlook all this the other day they were looking at Brazil to short, it did go down for a day held on my supports and now is at the levels I had forecasted- on $ I think as I have said earlier that weak $ will help earnings of companies which have huge external exposure INTC IBM SEG were taking huge charges as cumulative translation adjustment account due to strong $-- Latin America and ASEA will be helped also-- in this cyber economy we need to know what moves the big things up or down right- one can be temporarily wrong as momentum of money displaces your positions but as a overall picture if you do your sums right you will make money.. For me France is a buy or Germany is a buy too- why because I have seen the real Europe few years back it was disasters, our real estate portfolio here saw reduction in valuation by 50%, rents were not being paid delinquent tenants were increasing by day, this was from 91 to 97 we just saw green offshoots of growth since 97 end-so during all this time when the largest segment of mankind was suffering from worst kind of depression, we saw US moving from 600 on S&P to 1200 on S&P- this was the classic Bhumbo move which went through the bears central depositary at Fort SI--- I saw people shorting at 600 than at 750 and than at 900 990 and 1200- now this is a 4 year move based on earnings and most of this 600 to 900 came amidst the worst depression which OECD countries atleast in Europe were going through- the issue I take up is `put up or shut up' if any depression had to come or deflation had to come it had to be when Japan was taking the beating, and Europe was down in last few years and we saw moves when entire monetary system in Europe was under attack by the speculators interest rates were jacked up to 14% in France and 7% in Germany. EMU and Franc was under attack after successful taking out of Sterling from the EMU- since these very hedge funds were on the money making side no one ever talked about prospects of deflation.. If their had to be a real threat to global demand that was one occasion I thought we should have hit the wall.. Now growth of Europe from non-existent in last four years have just been revised to 2.1%-- Germany is slowing down but still expects 3%--- Japan is going three a deflation and US has shaved the growth prospects down to 2%.. however, I see that first time Europe the other most affluent portion of mankind is having a new tryst with destiny-we see demand increasing for services, Eastern Europe practically casted out of Global Arena is now a hopeful addition.. The overall demand will increase and not decrease.. The chances of Europe are far better now than few years back- also for most of tech and services oriented companies we may see things in few years time progressing very nicely for me Hungary and Poland will show the best turnarounds.With Europe recovery this short story will not have legs to stand on-back in Oct we faced similar problems as disasters were blown out of proportion this year similar views are in currency but fundamental picture is not giving confirmatory signals.. In my opinion the domestic demand of US is most important engine of growth for US stock markets-- yes US cannot remain and Oasis within turbulent times but I beg to differ with these self styled gurus we never told them at first place that ''you go to Russia''.. When we small investors have this sense of risk allocation their must be something seriously wrong with Goldman Sachs analysis that they were hosting huge meeting to sell Russia bonds just before the inception of this crisis. We say bond money is quite intelligent and smells the future but what do you think about money which is not intelligent but foolish the reasons bonds are up is because they are disproportionately allocating impact of crisis much higher for OECD countries they have built in risk premiums that may not be really required. Bonds can sell in two months big way for two simple reasons one if S&P earnings come on target at 38$ this is exactly what we had last year add to it the price earnings growth and you have making of a sound valuation of this equity market at these levels--- I think we are going to be range bound here. The second reason bond will sell is that money shifts back into higher yielding triple AAA corporate bonds which show a high yield differential from treasuries.. TB's were bid because every thing else is out of fashion gold is out, Oil is suffering, commodities are reeling, all this indicates a recession but what I don't understand why it is not showing up in the street even slightest sign of it like declining retail sales or less demand-- I think underlying reasons are more fear driven than economically driven-- as fear dissipates so will the price of bond heads South - Financial losses are a temporary phenomenon and depression don't result out of temporary phenomenon-US Europe constitutes 52% of Global GDP. Latin America, Asea and Japan another 28%. We the children of lesser God the 4 billion masses own only 20% of staple wealth- now anyone who thinks that 40 trillion $ GDP will be face deflation as result of Russian default or ASEAN crisis I think it is a wrong assumption-Europe will more than match for slow down in ASEA as we move forward- the things look bleakest at its bottom imagine the windfalls when Japan turnaround. US exports are suffering so does other OECD countries but markets have taken care of that and brought the valuations considerably down, it is here I think Accompaora is wrong as he talks of bulls market a week earlier and bear the next day- for me he never understood the bull market neither he understands bear, he is a fool like most fund managers are driven to slaughter houses every day by the pits- sell them get them short and ditch them.. I see a reduction in global demand but most of it is already priced in.. In my opinion these funds managers have built in too much of pessimism it is actually realization of huge amount of losses borne by hedge funds-- I am still at pains to understand why anyone in right mind would go and find opportunity in Russia and lose billions even the smartest did that, these domino fall as a result of back to back losses, this have resulted in liquidation of big positions by the hedge funds, many hedge funds were long the corporate short the treasuries, the problem they faced were as commodities sunk wrong message of deflation came out with Russian problems and ASEA compounding the issues they had margin calls on their Russian positions, they needed to sell something and they sold Latin American instruments that resulted in depressing equities in Latin America and ensued flight to quality, now as Treasuries roused the matters compounded, since they had short TB's and long corporate and corporate sold off on basis of fear they had to cover their shorts selling corporate further and driving the price of TB's steeper.. Now the more I look at it the more I am unable to find the way I have learnt deflation, I don't listen to these crazy lunatics until I get the evidence in the mean time trend remains my friend-- I have been trading on short side and consider this to continue until earnings show a good sign but the problem remains that corporate taking advantage of sickening feelings can front load all bad news so we may see mother of all bad news but in my opinion that mother will not take markets below 855 the Oct 28 the level- I correspond that level to France's 3100 level and German 4200 level these are my outside level and will work my way around it-- remember clearly that directional traders based on fundamentals are rarely wrong if the synthesis makes sense we will see one of the biggest bond sales in the history within 75 days even shorter as wage pressures and demand growth hit the wires and commodities show some kind of rebound as result of fiercer weather, the deflation of 1929 or depression could be seen much before the fall of equity prices in shape of asset bubble-- the Fed at that time was in a tightening mode unlike today when real interest rates are sky high, the logistics of 29 are different from logistics today, the economy is more global but risks are geographically concentrated on fewer areas, the problems may sound big Russia is in trouble or ASEA is in trouble but total market capitalization's of these countries is smaller than one mid size cap-the affect of losses transmitting from these investments by the banks will hit BKX or other sectors but once the losses are out in one or two quarters, the fundamentals will take over and valuations will reflect that accordingly.. Like 95 Mexican crisis we have seen initial response very disproportionate but as things settle the bull market will resumes it run...it may take quarter or two. the wealth concentration in these few areas only limits the risks of global fall out as staple dependent economies still need to run the basics. The affected portion of Global GDP is miniscule, even if 20% of 40 trillion is slowed down by 40% we are looking at next year global GDP of 37 trillion add on to it 3% growth of advanced economies we are back to numbers of 40-the figure we have today-the geographical size of economies should not be misinterpreted with their economic potential, Japan in my opinion is one example has huge potential despite being 1/50th of Russia but Japan has no where else but up to go- so are we not selling at bottom- only fools do that- just trade at bottoms make enough reserves and use that money to buy at an opportune time when things look bleakest you will never be wrong.. Fed rates need to come down as a result of economic fine-tuning and not as a result of fear driven selling-- if rates were even cut by 50 basis points back in August we would still see this huge problem as origin of the problems relates to foolish allocation of risk, ''crazy ponzi lending'' by these bankers, someone need to pay, the deflation fundamentals are duster not their remember the inflation talks in Oct--- anyone in right mind would not accept this definition of deflation from ''slowing commodities or rising yields'' both these factors are a result of the poor judgement and poor lending, the financials will suffer and huge write -off are in offing but these sufferings of Sorros and other hedge funds will help alleviation of crisis as huge outflows crippling these economies stop from Russia and ASEA will stop.. at the end of the day these Banks trading desks ringing huge profits from Russia or ASEA were not really contributing to their out put, now I expect less pressures on Russia turnaround in Japan and Clinton backlash.. all during next six months in the interim we trade on short term like we have been we shorted between 1197 to 1130 than waited and shorted between 1103 to 1000 that is the only way if I am in for long haul- from 600 to 1200 was great so will be the correction ..in immediate future the only way these markets are going to turn around will be if companies my post like COMs, if we see confirmatory earnings soon showing that we may have a better than expected quarter we may see these volatile times in less frequency. I think we don't have this global deflation in offing, defilations are not like `mad barking dogs' that appears around the corner all of sudden

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20587)	9/23/1998 5:22:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Was I not being condemned for COMS- eat your heart out- Who was shorting this market since Oct 1997-- or Composite 1680 or BKX 690-- the guys in black- the bhumbo went thru them this is the last sigh of the bhumbo-- it pains because shorts never make money either up or down-- unfortunate ccchchcccc Market from Oct has moved from 6900 to 9200-- BKX moved from 690 to 953-- Composite moved from 1680 to 2000 -- I was long than I am long now -- the people who were shorting than are short now-- they have wrong than they are wrong now-- one day market is up other down other nowehre other in the skies this thread thrives on correct levels - longish bias and proud of its heritage-- LatAm is up, Japan is turning around, Europe is stablising and deflation threats will be soon over I will short like I do but I will not get out of my positons. Shorts can keep shorting. On all these from Jan to Sept ocassions shorts were shorts-- from 1197 to 1130 from 1130 to 1000 I have 670 contracts traded with lethal accuracy and my COMS and ASND is back up where it has to be-- CSCO INTC MSFT- In last three weeks on 14 ocassion wrong sell signals and short recomendation went out -- in last three weeks I made 21 recommendations on this thread 17 were tradeable with targets that is what matters to me-- bird brained egomaniacs can keep coming but ''ice cream parlours and my eye popping bhumbos will be ready to rocket them off to outer space''.. they will rarely attract my attention.. unfortunately exotic unscienteifc unproven predictions will reamin uneventful colorless and boring--

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20587)	9/23/1998 5:46:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

'''''' Market probably will hit the 1030 --should hold that support, may be 1027 but a break will take us to 1018 area-- I think in a weeks time our target of 1070 is a good probability if 1030 holds today--'''''''' my message yesterday-- My call yesterday -- as always is the case correct--ggggggg-- and to the point-- I will think we cross this 1045 resistance yesterday and hit the 1052 today- will in liklihood take it out if we fail we close above 1030- break of 1018 will intitate long puts like 960's----112 long puts on bonds- currency trade short sterling long $-- at 168 level- I have already made the finest call on shorting Sterling against market expect levels to as low as 2.60 from 282 by march 99-- Long ALA FTE Hoechst