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To: Berney who wrote (4061)9/22/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11051
 
Berney, thanks for the top list. Re utilities, my grandma told me they're the best the market can offer for stormy times.



To: Berney who wrote (4061)9/22/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
 
Berney; RE:" toujours l'argent "

Thank you so much for posting your list, Berney.

>I do not consider utilities to be equities...

>However, when compared to the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, they have the opportunity to beat this index almost 90% of the time. So, I consider utilities to be a fixed income substitute.

Yes, of course; they are ersatz bondz. I have been studying the 7 or so utilities that I found (in a very crude scan) this morning, which will become ex-dividend 25-SEP and pay 7.9+ % APR yields 30-SEP.

They are, essentially "utility bonds". Of note to you and me is that: (1) there are no options on them (if there were options, we could engage in what is called a "PUT dividend arbitrage tactic" - see McMillan, Options As A Strategic Investment, 3rd ed., pp. 425-428); and, (2) their stock prices drop abruptly, apparently between ex-dividend and payout dates.

>> They always recover some portion after that drop, Berney.

One could throw a chunk of kapital at them after the drop, (which I assume at this point is similar to a drop in NAV, like some "closed-end fund" paying a dividend), scalp-long the suckers and bail out for a fraction, leaving the "profit" so to speak as some odd-lot number of shares. I mean, if you knew you had a good probability of making 0.25 to 0.5 of a point, with the remainder kapital gain paying out 7.8% APR, how much kapital would you throw at a long-scalping trade ?

I believe this is a tradeable, (albeit conservative) phenomena. The tactic makes particular sense in a tax-free trading account, such as an IRA: Scalping trades would carry no short-term tax penalties, nor would the interest earned.

Of course, they are not likely to grow either, as you pointed out; indeed, they appear to orbit between $24 and $26 a share. FWIW, dudes - each share is a pizza !

But - if one is scalp-trading them anyway, the (profit) odd shares left over represent a "forget-about-it, it's-not-real-money-anyway" portfolio. I note that this tactic, indeed most income-generating tactics, are only productive when the returns better inflation.

Cash management is interesting, Berney. I'm learning (^_^)

-Steve