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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (6703)9/22/1998 1:03:00 PM
From: The Perfect Hedge  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86076
 
I've followed them somewhat and they were predicting a big crash 2 weeks ago that didn't happen..I think they're not too accurate...

Did you buy puts on VOD?

B



To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (6703)9/22/1998 1:18:00 PM
From: Joseph G.  Respond to of 86076
 
Do you mean numbers, or interpretatins?
<<Princeton Economics InternationalT is perhaps the largest global strategic advisory firm in the world with
assets in excess of US$1 billion. Our origin stems from the "real world" perspective not mere ivory tower
theory. PEI has evolved over the years by aiding clients directly and getting involved in solving their
particular problems around the world. It has been this practical experience that has shaped our research
and computer model designs.

Today, PEI has grown over the past 30 years with over 300 employees in the group on five continents. PEI
provides specific forecasting on more than 100,000 individual instruments and statistics including
currencies, cross-rates, bonds, shares, interest rates, commodities and economic statistics worldwide
making us the largest research organization in the field of investment and global economics. It has been
our resources and our experience that our clients have come to rely upon around the world. At a cost of
over $60 million, PEI has developed the first fully functioning Artificial Intelligence computer system,
which monitors the world economy each and every day. It is our commitment to research that is simply
unmatched in the international arena. Once you have become familiar with our terminology and our
methodology of global correlation and capital flow analysis, you the end-user, can tap into a wealth of
information and research that is simply unprecedented in the financial industry.

PEI has taken great steps to avoid the pitfalls of most computer modeling attempts. The primary reason for
the failure of many models to accurately forecast long-term trends stems from their neglect to test systems
over great periods of time - preferably 100 years or more. Models based on 10, 20 or 30 years of data still
show only one side of an economic trend within a long-term perspective. One can not hope for a forecast
of a coming depression or a new great bull market unless the database extends back in time for at least
100 years if not several. The second cause of most forecasting model failures stems from the human
element, which begins with a set of predetermined assumptions. For example, if one assumes that if
interest rates rise stocks will decline without proving that relationship over long periods of time, then the
model itself will be biased and ultimately fail. By looking at centuries of data, one can definitively
determine how capital responds under all conditions. Those who made the fatal mistake of assuming a
static relationship between stocks and interest rates missed the bull market between 1994 and 1998 since
the Federal Reserve raised rate 8 times while the Dow Jones Industrials doubled. Instead of beginning
with human assumptions or bias, the design of our model has produced the only objective system. We
have created a cognitive learning machine in the field of investment and economics - something never
attempted before in this industry. By monitoring all markets, economies and political statistics as well as
net capital movement on a global scale, our model correlates everything worldwide offering an
impressive insight into the true international trends.

The PEI model has proven itself over time by providing PEI with a reputation of holding the highest
possible degree of accuracy combined with a consistent global forecasting result. It is this model which
proved to be the ONLY such system that correctly forecast the 1987 Crash and that the markets would make
new highs within TWO years! It has been our in-depth research that has made our forecasts possible and
our research has been much sought-after during periods of crisis and turmoil. It was President Reagan's
administration that requested our research when answers were needed as to the future in the days
following the 1987 melt-down - (See Brady Commission (Task Force in charge of investigating the 1987 stock
market crash)

Our model has also correctly forecast virtually every major turning point in the currencies, share markets
and of course the peak and Crash of Tokyo in 1989 not to mention political trends along the way. It is the
very nature of our model and its approach to a global economy that has provided its most impressive
results. It is simply IMPOSSIBLE for any market to move significantly without having some impact upon the
entire marketplace. It is the very global perspective offered by our models that has produced the
consistent forecasting of Princeton Economics International&trade;, not the mere opinion of any individual.

It has been PEI's unique approach to global strategic forecasting that has earned us the reputation we
currently enjoy worldwide. Our clients have come to depend upon us for the "real" information even in the
area of economic statistics that have become extremely error prone and dangerous to both the business
and investment communities (See Data Errors). The NY Post wrote that PEI is "one of the most prestigious
economic research companies in the nation." (7/5/85) The Weekly Toyokeizai (Weekly Tokyo Economic
Journal) wrote... "Princeton Economics International Ltd. is an influential investment advisory company
which provides advice and fund management from a global point of view for governmental agencies and
institutional investors globally" (8/5/95) and our chairman was named as "America' Top Economist" by
Equity Magazine of Canada. In March of 1998, PEI was voted #1 forecasting organization in the annual poll
of Japanese institutions by the Nikkei Financial Daily. It was the Wall Street Journal. who also named our
founder as one of the highest paid consultants in the world as far back as 1983. (See press clips from
around the world).

Princeton's clientele is primarily institutional and corporate for whom we play a strategic role by providing
important research into the ever-growing complexity of the global economy. We understand the problems
of international business and are often called upon by even government to help explain what is
happening in the "real world" and its impact upon the global economy. (See PEI 1996 US Congressional
Testimony).

From around the world, it is becoming increasingly obvious that analysis, economic or investment, can no
longer be conducted on a pure domestic basis. The speed with which capital is capable of moving means
that any economy can be disrupted by international capital flows due to external considerations. It is in
this growing age of internationalism that PEI has devoted its resources to provide the most complete
global capital flow models ever constructed. It is for this reason that PEI has become a leader in strategic
global advice for the investment and business communities alike. One of our greatest assets is our global
presence. With our international client base, we are on top of the real problems and trends long before
they hit the headlines in the world media. Through our effort to hold seminars that circle the globe twice
each year, we bring the latest information and trends directly to our clients where interaction is greatly
encouraged.

Today, PEI services the global community by bringing its long-term experience to help our clients cope
with all the risks of our modern age from FX and interest rates to share markets and political risk. Because
the global economy is our specialty, some of the largest public funds in the world use PEI models to assist
them in dealing with international asset allocation. Between our corporate and institutional clients, PEI
provides strategic global advice on assets well in excess of US$2.5 trillion around the world through its
offices in Princeton, NJ, Tokyo, London, Hong Kong and Sydney, Australia. (Service to clients in the Middle
East and Africa are provided via our London office.) In addition to our global forecasting services, PEI offers
strategic portfolio and asset allocation monitoring for major institutions and back our accuracy with a 100%
money back guarantee. Our computer can monitor even individual shares around the world and alert fund
managers to any change in trend providing the resources equivalent to hundreds of research staff.

Princeton Economics InternationalT research divisions provide in-depth fundamental investigations into
the field of economics, corporate and tax law as well as politics (See Political Forecasting) to further the
understanding of our new global environment and how the private and public sectors interact. We have
defined through research that it is economics that drives politics - not the other way around. It was
economics that forced political change in Russia. It was interest rates hitting 22% in 1980 that ushered in a
sweeping shift toward conservatism in the United States and in Britain, which has reshaped even the
Democrats in the US and New Labour in the UK. And it will be economics once again that will user in
sweeping political changes in Japan and China. By monitoring global economic trends, our computer
models have successfully forecast (See Associated Press) the shifting tide of politics and the rise and fall of
nations.

Within the PEI group, we also provide international financial execution services in shares, bonds and
futures (See soft-dollar services) in all major financial centers as well as corporate underwriting (See
Cresvale International Ltd.). For business seeking to externalize its FX risk management, Princeton Global
Management Ltd. will directly take over the responsibility of hedging production, sales and international
trade on a fee, performance or guarantee basis backed by Letters of Credit if necessary. PEI does NOT
accept funds for management from private individuals.

Our Electronic Services Division provides daily forecasting in English as well as Japanese via Fax
Services, Bloomberg and Reuters and of course the Internet where we continue in our goal to build the
most comprehensive web site in the financial industry. It is through this new and dynamic delivery
potential that we hope to bring full access to the world for our clients in every corner of the globe.

PEI is indeed forecasting the world. We will continue to bring the most independent and objective
information to our clients worldwide. Today, the Board of Directors of PEI comes from every continent
bringing together a unique international perspective untainted by any particular nationalistic bias thus
insuring the most objective results possible. PEI will maintain that spirit of independence by continuing to
fund its research purely by its worth to clients worldwide. PEI does not accept grants or fees from any
government anywhere in the world to insure that the principal of free speech is never compromised. The
work we do on behalf of nations is always provided for free as a public service. >>



To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (6703)9/23/1998 11:11:00 AM
From: Thomas M.  Respond to of 86076
 
The one striking difference today from that of the 1930s remains none
other than the economy mix itself. During the Great Depression, 40% of
the civil work force was employed within the commodity sector. Because
commodities collapsed, jobs vanished causing unemployment to rise to
25% in the United States - hence the term Great Depression. Today, that
same type of devastation is NOT taking place and is UNLIKELY to take
place within the United States. The bulk of the economy in the US is a
domestic oriented service economy. Services include everything from
retail sales, lawyers, doctors, government, politicians and of course the
financial industry. We have seen such a major depression taking place in
Japan. However we also do NOT see unemployment in Japan anywhere
close to 25% even after a 10-year decline. Therefore, we do NOT see any
risk of a major depression that is identical to that of 1929.


I like PEI, but I'm not sure why they think all the daytraders are going to be employed post-BK. Also, the comparison to Japan is poor. Everybody knows their true unemployment is much higher than stated, since the gov't pays companies to keep people on the payroll.

Tom