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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JBoyd who wrote (19692)	9/22/1998 3:03:00 PM
From: Douglas Rhodes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Slow day today (extremely slow) until around 2:30 and them a 200K+ share transaction followed by no movement in price. a Buy? a Sell? a cross? Any thoughts?

To: JBoyd who wrote (19692)	9/22/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: Darryl Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

I think a pertinent question is how many years did it take Cymer to get to the point where they made a profit in this market? Answer - I think this was in the range of 8 - 10 years. The next question would be, how long has it taken Cymer's major competitors (Lamda and Komatsu) to generate a profit in this market? Answer - they still are not profitable in this market. In addition, I believe Cymer has stated that they are 12-18 months ahead of Lamda and Komatsu. It would require a Herculean effort and some divine intervention to start from scratch and catch-up. A more realistic scenario would be for a major corporation to buy Komatsu's or Lamda's technology and try to advance it.

To: JBoyd who wrote (19692)	9/22/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Darryl Olson	Respond to of 25960

JB - excerpt from the Morgan Stanley Dean Witter report. Please note last sentence in each paragraph. Also note that Cymer's 5010 laser has raised the bar to 0.18-microns. Thanks to Pat and Jay for this info. -Based on our 1998 photolithography system market estimate of 325 units, our new 1998 laser market estimate is 371 units, down from 450 previously. We assume Komatsu and Lambda Physik together shipped about 30 lasers into photolithography system vendors for evaluation, testing, and beta sites (30 may be too high). Therefore, we assume Cymer represents 92% of the market. However, 100% of volume chip production on deep-UV photolithography systems worldwide is done with Cymer lasers. In fact, if it were not for Cymer, there would be no reliable 0.25-micron laser-based DUV chip production. -Our new DUV photolithography system market estimate for 1999 is 375, down from 450 previously, and our new 1999 laser market estimate is 395, down fro 531 previously. Our 1999 laser to photolithography system ratio is 1.05 following our estimate of 1.14 in 1998. Our initial 300 unit estimate for Cymer in 1999 assumes a 76% share of the market, but upside is likely because our research indicates neither Lamda Physik nor Komatsu has been qualified for volume production by any chipmakers.