SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Alan Whirlwind who wrote (19517)9/22/1998 10:52:00 PM
From: CIMA  Respond to of 116762
 
Two African Crises Merge... With U.S. Help

Two major, long-running African crises are merging, feeding on
each other and threatening to envelop the continent in one great
tangled web of conflict. The war in the Democratic Republic of
the Congo (DRC) long ago went multinational, with Angola,
Namibia, and Zimbabwe intervening on behalf of the government of
Laurent Kabila, and Rwanda and Uganda supporting the ethnic Tutsi
rebels. On Tuesday, Uganda's "New Vision" newspaper reported
that Sudan had sent 2,000 troops, including 700 Sudanese-
sponsored Ugandan rebels, to support the Kabila regime in the
DRC. The newspaper cited Tutsi rebels in the DRC as reporting
that Sudanese troops were airlifted last week from Khartoum and
Juba to front line positions in Kindu, Isiro, and Lubumbashi.
Agence France Presse slightly contradicted the New Vision report,
however, citing an unnamed security source as saying the majority
of the Sudanese force in the DRC were, in fact, Rwandan
Interahamwe, who have been training in Sudan for nearly a year.

Sudan's involvement in the DRC complicates, and is in large part
driven by, its existing struggle against Ugandan-backed rebels.
Uganda supports the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), which
is battling the regime in Khartoum, and Sudan, in turn, supports
several rebel groups battling Kampala. Sudan certainly wants to
aid a potential ally, Kabila, to Uganda's rear. The proxy war
between Sudan and Uganda escalated last week, with a series of
clashes in Sudan's Eastern Equatoria province. Sudanese army
spokesman, Lieutenant General Abd al-Rahman Sirr al-Khatim,
claimed on September 21 that Sudanese soldiers had fought Ugandan
regular army troops in Eastern Equatoria, and that the Ugandans
had made no attempt to disguise their involvement. According to
Sirr al-Khatim, Sudanese forces destroyed 11 Ugandan tanks, three
armored vehicles, and several armored personnel carriers. He
claimed that the Ugandan troops came from the towns of Kitgum and
Gulu, and were recognizable by their arms, equipment, and
fatigues.

Ugandan Defense Forces spokesman, Shaban Bantariza, denied
Ugandan involvement, asking Sudan to prove its claims, and
asserting that the forces in the clashes were those of the SPLA.
Sirr al-Khatim's claims went further, however, as he stated that
the Ugandan equipment matched that of their allies, "such as the
Eritrean People's Front (EPF) regime." Sirr al-Khatim said, "All
evidence in the field indicates that the general mobilization in
Uganda against Sudan is extensive and continuous." Furthermore,
the general said, "These events in Eastern Equatoria have
coincided with the increasing movements of EPF forces along the
border, the evacuation of residents from the border areas on
their side, and the increasing concentration of their forces on
the border. All this is a reflection of the hostile intentions
and the well-coordinated efforts between Uganda and the EPF to
launch heinous aggressive attacks."

Regardless of Khartoum's claims, before Eritrea can mobilize
against Sudan, it must settle its dispute with Ethiopia. For
five months, Ethiopia and Eritrea have been in a state of war
over a section of their common border, but there have recently
been signs of a stepped up effort to settle the dispute. Former
Sudanese Premier and member of the rebel National Democratic
Alliance (NDA), Sadek al-Mahdi, was in Addis Ababa on September
22 on a "good offices mission" to help solve the border conflict.
The NDA is the umbrella organization that unites Eritrean-backed
Sudanese rebel forces in the north with the Ugandan-backed rebels
in the south. According to a source close to Mahdi's delegation,
he met with "Ethiopia's largest bodies," and three days
previously had met with Eritrean authorities.

Also suddenly stepping up its efforts to settle the Ethiopian-
Eritrean border dispute is the United States, which also backs
the Sudanese rebels. On September 18, the U.S. and Italy called
on the two countries to cooperate with the mediation efforts of
the Organization of African Unity. On September 22, the
Ethiopian government newspaper "Addis Zemen" reported that the
U.S. and Italy had donated $10.23 million to help Ethiopians
displaced by the border dispute.

There are other indications of U.S. intentions toward both Sudan
and the DRC, raising questions of a possible U.S. role in
orchestrating the linking of these two crises. Despite the fact
that Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Susan Rice, assured
Congress that the U.S. considers the conflict in the DRC "among
the most dangerous in the world" and is not assisting any of the
DRC's neighbors to intervene, she said on the satellite broadcast
"African Journal" program that "The DRC should not be used as a
haven for UNITA, Interahamwe and others to destabilize Uganda,
Rwanda, and Angola." On the same program, former Assistant
Secretary of State for Africa, Herman Cohen, who served in the
Reagan and Bush administrations, said "Certainly, Uganda has very
legitimate reasons for intervening in the Congo crisis. Congo is
a source of regional instability. Even Rwanda and Angola have
legitimate reasons to send troops there."

On September 19, the Secretary General of the Political
Department of Sudan's National Congress, Muhammad al-Hasan al-
Amin, announced that Khartoum had received a document from the
U.S., charging Sudan with continuing to support the terrorist
groups of Osama Bin Laden, who were planning additional attacks
on U.S. interests. According to Amin, the document said that the
U.S. would hold Sudan responsible for any further attacks against
U.S. citizens and interests, anywhere in the world. On September
20, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir announced that the U.S.
government had sent Khartoum an unsigned document, threatening to
attack other targets in Sudan. Bashir said Sudan "would welcome
this second strike, and it would not file a complaint with the
Security Council, because it would retaliate." He said Sudan's
reaction "would be painful."

It is questionable whether even the Clinton administration would
resort to the crude tactic of sending unsigned, unheaded threats
to Khartoum. But increased U.S. involvement in Ethiopia and
support for Uganda, apparently as part of a plan to facilitate a
new Sudanese rebel offensive, is evident. These new U.S. efforts
against Sudan, following the now-questioned attack on the Shifa
chemical plant, demonstrate a renewed commitment by Washington to
topple the regime in Khartoum. The Shifa attack was but a first
step. However, contributing to the potential formation of a
battlefield stretching from Luanda to Asmara is a dangerous game.
We hope it's worth it.

___________________________________________________

To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at
stratfor.com, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com
___________________________________________________

STRATFOR Systems, Inc.
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: stratfor.com
Email: info@stratfor.com