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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Essam Zaneldin who wrote (18365)	9/22/1998 8:32:00 PM
From: High Grader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

Looks like Apple is now in minor wave 3 of intermediate wave 5. Possible targets for prices and time shown at elkvalley.net

To: Essam Zaneldin who wrote (18365)	9/22/1998 8:57:00 PM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 213177

Well folks, my estimates for revenues was $1450-$1550mill, with higher probability towards the lower side. Given the iMac success I think it is possible that Apple might post revenues as high as $1650mill. Apple has a lot more problems that what this board acknowledges. In fact, it was taking water at such a speed that three incredibly successful product releases after (G3, PowerBooks, MacOS8.0) it still posted falling revenues. However, the speed of the fall has tapered quite a bit lately and I'd say that with the information available today predicting higher revenues for next quarter is a no brainer. This was a much closer call than many here would acknowledge: a successful 200K unit introduction of the iMac would have resulted in flat revenues! Because of this I will keep the lower end of the revenue prediction at $1450 but the upper end will go to $1650. More importantly, I would say the zone of high probability is now around $1525-1575mill. This is not the tightest of estimates, but I cannot predict any better with two just weeks sales figures for the iMacs....

To: Essam Zaneldin who wrote (18365)	9/22/1998 9:14:00 PM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

I quote: Although Compaq still leads in the consumer market with 30.9 percent of systems sold in August, Apple advanced to the third spot with 13.5 percent market share, up from 6 percent the month before. HP was second with 23.2 percent, and IBM was fourth with 10.5 percent. So, Apple doubled it's sales during August. Since units sold in July were roughly 214,000, this means that during August sold an additional 267,500 computers, 80-90% of which are iMacs. Let's say, 85% of those are iMacs, which gives 227,000 iMacs sold in August. This figure is in the same ball park as the 190,000 iMacs I got doing a similar back of the envelope analysis on the ZD figures. (See: exchange2000.com I think then number of iMacs sold in August is in all likelihood around 200K-250K. Add another 200K iMacs for September, which is not too aggressive a projection if indeed Apple sold 200K in August and we are looking at revenues near or about $1600mill... Interesting.... P.s. Eric, yeap, I know I did not take into account june-july growth in the figures used above. That introduces a small error of 30K or so units in the figures above, this is small enough to fall within the margin of confidence on the ZD figures to start with...