Belarus Plays on Fears of Germany to Appeal to Poland
On September 18, "Polish Radio 1" broadcast assurances by Polish
Foreign Ministry spokesman, Pawel Dobrowolski, that Poland has no
problems with its border with Germany. Dobrowolski's statement
was in response to comments made by Belarusian Foreign Minister
Ivan Antanovich, claiming that Poland was "in a dangerous
situation in light of the claims to Polish western territories by
German expellee associations. In the circumstances, the
Belarusian authorities want to sign a Polish-Belarusian border
agreement." Antanovich reportedly expressed his desire to
discuss the potential agreement with Polish Foreign Minister
Bronislaw Geremek during the UN General Assembly's autumn
session.
Antanovich's warning to Poland follows recent demands issued by
the German League of Expellees (BdV), which represents Germans
who were deported from Central and Eastern Europe after World War
Two. At a "Fatherland Day" rally on September 6, the BdV adopted
what they called the "Berlin Appeal," which demanded compensation
from Poland and the Czech Republic for German expellees before
the two countries would be allowed into the European Union. The
league's outspoken chairperson, Erika Steinbach, is a Bundestag
delegate for German Chancellor Helmut Kohl's Christian Democratic
Union (CDU).
Polish and German officials have attempted to downplay the BdV's
demands. Polish Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek called the league an
"extremist group," and said its positions and demands were not
those of any official German body. Germany's ambassador to
Poland, Johannes Bauch, attributed the "sharp tones" in German
politics to Germany's upcoming elections. German Foreign
Minister Klaus Kinkel also attempted to calm the waters,
claiming, "Poland can still count on Germany as an advocate on
the road to European structures." "We do not intend to burden
negotiations with issues of the past," Kinkel said. He also
stressed that the majority of the expellees "distanced themselves
from radical factions and supported the policy of reconciliation
and good-neighborly relations."
The BdV may be only a small and extremist political minority in
Germany, but its members are also core members of the CDU and the
Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU). The CDU and CSU are both
part of Germany's ruling coalition, and need BdV member votes in
the September 27 Bundestag elections. Kohl's ruling coalition
may be publicly downplaying the BdV's demands, but it is not
outright contradicting the BdV. Belarus is not entirely wrong in
warning that Germany's incumbent government is quietly relying on
extremists who are making demands on Poland and the Czech
Republic. But Belarus has more pressing goals than just raising
Polish awareness.
Belarus is eager to increase, rather than soothe Polish-German
tension. Belarus is rapidly increasing its formal ties to
Russia, and as reunification becomes more concrete, will become
greater Russia's new border with the West. On the other side of
that border sits Poland, eager to enter the European Union, NATO,
and as many other Western European political, military, and
economic structures as possible, despite the growing role of
Germany in those organizations. Poland is being placed in the
unenviable position of choosing between a resurgent Germany and a
resurgent Soviet Union. Neither is a particularly welcome
partner, as both have, in recent memory, surged over Poland.
Yet, as it still has a choice, Poland is tending to side with
Germany and the West.
Antanovich's efforts to force a wedge between Poland and Germany
come at a time when Belarus has little to offer in return.
Besides the fact that Belarus is tying its fortunes to the
economic disaster that is Russia, Belarusian-Polish relations are
currently strained at best. There is an ongoing diplomatic
scuffle between the two over the opening of a Radio Free Belarus
station in Poland. In addition, on September 21, the "Polish
News Bulletin" reported that Belarusian authorities refused to
allow visiting Polish deputies to meet with parliamentarians from
the Belarusian Supreme Council, which is not recognized by
Belarusian President Lukashenko. In turn, the Polish deputies
refused to meet with the Belarusian parliament's lower chamber,
which is not recognized by the West. Somewhat contradicting
claims of a row between the visiting Poles and the Belarusian
government was the claim by Antanovich, that he was not even made
aware of the Polish visit. Antanovich was quoted as saying, "We
are offended by the fact that a high-level delegation from Poland
is in our country behind the back of the republic's government,
apparently covertly."
Poland is quickly moving towards alignment with the West, while
Belarus is moving just as quickly in the opposite direction.
Thus, in a very real way, the Belarusian-Polish border will soon
be the new border between Russia and the West. Belarus, not
quite sufficiently enamored with Russia to eagerly await being
the next East-West battleground, is still looking for every
opportunity to convince Poland that close relations with the West
may not be as pleasant as they might imagine. Belarus wants its
buffer back, yet with only the warm embrace of Mother Russia to
offer as an alternative, Belarus will have difficulty winning
Poland over. Failing to convince Poland to alter its
orientation, Belarus' next steps are "cajole" and "coerce."
___________________________________________________
To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at
stratfor.com, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com
___________________________________________________
STRATFOR Systems, Inc.
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: stratfor.com
Email: info@stratfor.com
|
