THE FUTURE IS NOW
Dr. Doom has tried to look 3-6 months into the future with his
predictions about geopolitical events, economic catastrophes and market
declines. Should there be doubts about his accuracy in forecasting global and
economic crises, you should re-visit the Mr. Cyriuss website -
stockhouse.com
In the September 1st issue, Dr. Doom wrote:
"In terms of the calendar, 14 of the worst 25 percentage declines occurred
between September 24th and December 18th. Nine of the 25 fell during October."
With this coming week, we are now entering what fright novelist, Stephen King,
called "The Dead Zone." Numerous geopolitical events are now in play, which
should add more turbulence to an already shaken global economy.
RUSSIA
Let's start with Russia. Imagine that the same spymaster who ran the KGB's
Middle East terrorist network is now Russia's new Prime Minister. Old dogs don't
learn new tricks. Leopards never change their spots. This past February, Yevgeny
Primakov, Yeltsin's third, final, and compromise, choice for PM, brokered the
Saddam Hussein "peace" deal, averting Gulf War II. It was Mr. Primakov, whose
close ties with Qadhafi, Hussein and other Muslim dictators, that insisted Iraq
maintain its hard-line stance and thumb its nose at the USA.
In the face of an oil glut, it will be Primakov who will open up the Iraqi oil
taps and bring you lower gasoline prices. That this will further wreak havoc in
Indonesia, Venezuela and Nigeria might kill three continents with one stone,
four if you include Europe. Asia, Latin America and Africa will plunge into
further economic depression. Indonesia is well along in its way toward another
civil war. The domino effect of a Venezuelan crisis will tear through Latin
America in an instant. Africa is, well, after all, Africa and brutalities tend
to be mostly ignored by the Anglo-European high society.
Europe now feels the pinch of a destabilized Russia. September's last-second
compromise candidate won't forestall Viktor Chernomyrdin's economic cataclysm:
Russia's printing presses will run all night long to save the day. A flood of
freshly printed roubles will continue propping up bankrupt Russian businesses.
Corrupted courts and police will again fail to enforce legitimate business
contracts or provide law and order. State assets will freely flow into Union
Bank of Switzerland, the Caymans, Malta and other safe havens while 60-80-% of
Russians live on the brink of starvation. There is no IMF money left to defend
the Russian rouble, let alone bail out Argentina, and none will be forthcoming.
Expect the rouble to find a safe trading level between 100 and 200 roubles to
the US dollar by next year. Conditions for another November revolution?
As for Boris Yeltsin, his time has been quickly running out. Many are predicting
he will resign or be incapacitated before his term expires. The Yeltsin-Duma
showdown, which led to Primakov's prime ministerial appointment, curtailed
Yeltsin's capacity to govern. According to the New York Times, Yeltsin's
leadership has largely been reduced to a ceremonious role as President, much in
the same way Bill Clinton has fallen from grace within the Democratic Party. One
might gamble on which of these two leaders will depart their offices first.
THE US PRESIDENCY
The final nail in the coffin would be the inevitable televised
impeachment proceedings by the U.S. House of Representatives, likely commencing
in February 1999. There is an eerie resemblance between the previous impeachment
trial and the stage for this next one. President Andrew Johnson met a similar
fate over 130 years ago, when on February 24, 1868, the U.S. House of
Representatives voted to impeach him. That impeachment committee, much like
Judge Starr's office, introduced 11 articles of impeachment. That trial quickly
began, in the U.S. Senate, less than two weeks later, but dragged on for nearly
three months before the Senate failed to convict by one vote shy of a two-thirds
majority. If history repeats itself, we may find a recurrence before next
Memorial Day.
Clinton may receive a similar humiliation, beaten but still holding
office. The House Judiciary Committee, having realized it has a far more
dangerous character than Richard Nixon on their hands, appears to have chosen
the route of a pre-emptive strike with the ongoing release of grand jury
testimony. Such coercion, while necessary with such a degraded personality, has
but one purpose: Mr. President, please re-consider your intent to remain in
office. These are not welcome times for a moldering U.S. President, whose stench
revolts sensibilities around the globe.
The financial markets should reflect the increased enmity between a
Republican Congress, a blighted but bitter Democratic Party and the scoundrel
President. The November congressional elections will heighten animosity within
Congress, as Republicans are likely to sweep those elections and set in place a
coup de grace for the entire Democratic Party by the U.S. Presidential elections
in the year 2000.
At this time, President Clinton draws his main support from blacks - up
to 86% of American blacks unequivocally continue to support Clinton. Many view
him as the "first black President." Perhaps, that may explain the inexplicable
presidential approval rating. (Otherwise, you may be enlightened to read Jay
Severin's excellent article entitled "Beware Bogus Polls" at
msnbc.com. Rumors abound in American ghettos that
there is "black blood" flowing in Clinton's veins; other rumors remind us of a
mulatto child Clinton is said to have fathered. His popularity supercedes that
of Jesse Jackson and Colin Powell. The Afro-American assessment of a resigned
Clinton would be a loss of any advances made by blacks during this decade. The
rift between black and white would grow during any prolonged impeachment
process. Is there an alternative?
In an ultimate "Wag the Dog" scenario, an Osama bin-Laden would be
supplanted by nuclear war. It would take a cynical and paranoid disposition to
suspect that this would be the final diversionary card played by this U.S.
President, in an effort to distract a disgusted American populace from his
scandal. But, we can not rule this out. The circumstances may already be in play
for such consequences - between India and Pakistan.
PAKISTAN & INDIA
The nuclear nightmare of May 1998 has a high chance of repeating itself
within the next 90 days: various intelligence reports suggest that both India
and Pakistan are set to test more nuclear missiles.
Pakistan is said to have recently received shipments of weapons material
from North Korea. Aircraft laden with warhead canisters and components for
missile production were identified in Pakistan. Satellite photography recently
discovered increased activity at Pakistan's Khan Laboratories' missile
production and assembly plant. A Chinese-built reactor, capable of producing
weapons-grade plutonium, has reportedly been recently completed and Pakistan is
said to have stepped up production of the Ghauri nuclear missile. U.S.
intelligence reports that Russian weapons-grade steel arrived from a North
Korean company, Changowang Sinyong Corp., earlier this summer. A Pakistani
trading company is reportedly in final negotiations with Russian manufacturers
for mass spectrometers, lasers and carbon fiber, used in missile guidance
systems.
India announced it would soon be testing the Agni II, an advanced
version of its Agni I, both intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear
warhead capability. Just before Labor Day, India tested its Akash and Trishul
surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles. Nuclear capable submarine-launched
missiles are on the boards to be tested next month.
The likely battlefield would be in Kashmir, where escalating tensions
could soon set off global alarm bells. Two of three Indo-Pakistani wars have
been fought over Kashmir and a fourth appears on the horizon. Western military
analysts fear that funds have been drained from conventional weaponry and poured
into the nuclear programs of both countries. Emotions cry for war from both
sides and the setting lacks but a fuse to set off a limited nuclear war.
CONCLUSION
Upheavals during the fourth quarter 1998 are heating up. Ruined U.S. and
Russian presidents, increasing Muslim turmoil, the threat of probable nuclear
war in the Indo-Pakistani sub-continent, a potential Iranian invasion of
Afghanistan, the reality of an economic "Great Depression" spreading throughout
the Pacific Rim, and a financial apocalypse in Russia spell G-L-O-B-A-L
M-E-L-T-D-O-W-N.
We hope you are ready. Old alliances, courtesy of Yevgeny Primakov, have
been re-kindled; new ones are being formed as you read this. The New Russia may
soon look like the one circa 1960. The current U.S. president remains eager to
repeat the 1868 tragedy to preserve a legacy on par with the one left behind by
Warren G. Harding or the Roman Emperor Nero. Folks, Rome is burning. It just
hasn't been announced on CNN yet to make it official.
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