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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (1820)	9/23/1998 7:17:00 AM
From: Yamakita	Respond to of 2506

That seems to me right as well. I've still got a position in TERA, which I think will head down to zero sooner than later due to their cash-burn rate, but basically I agree that we may have bottomed out. The great thing about shorting broken and, preferably, fraudulent stocks is that, with some exceptions, they don't tend to rise with the tide.

To: Q. who wrote (1820)	9/23/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Respond to of 2506

No argument with your analysis of short term indicators. However, in the bigger picture (ie 1+ month out there) and macro-wise, we are going down. For the day traders, sure, play the dead cat bounce and come back for tax loss selling. AG.

To: Q. who wrote (1820)	9/23/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 2506

Definitely, John just came back from a week holiday finding all the dead cats dancing and the primary Internet sector gyrating. This too, may induce higher prices on the second tier internet stocks and we should care about shorting a stock regardless of price (this refers to stocks like CMGI, SEEK, DCKL, RNWK, SPLN (!),EGGS). Christian

To: Q. who wrote (1820)	9/26/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: drakes353	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

Hey John: Been off of SI for a few weeks to attend to other matters. Agree with your take on the market. FWIW, the S&P is up something like 9% this month. The beginnings of new bull legs are sneaky and this one isn't any different. The Naz and the S&P got turned away last week on their first upside test of their 200 day MAs but I doubt that will prove to be much of a problem. 'Specially if Big Al does the right thing on Tuesday. Three weeks of rally and the Investor's Intelligence Bulls - Bears are still solidly in negative territory. I don't expect a short term top to get put in until I see a Bulls - Bears reading of +20 or so. Rallies occuring in the face of continuing negative advisory sentiment usually have legs (See Nov '94, Oct '90, etc.) Kind of bizarre but the market does look like it's keeping to a long streak of 4 year "price adjustments"....'98, '94, '90, '87, '82, '78, '74 and so on back to '62. The broad based decline this year really kind of took the sport out of shorting for me. Much, much more satisfying finding great shorts in a runaway bull market. If I'm right about the market then finding good shorts should again become somewhat tough as we move into '99. The real challenge on the long side over the next few weeks and months will be to try to find the Dell (Class of '94) or Cisco (Class of '90) of the '98 market bottom. Having said all that, I also agree that this year tax loss selling season should be like shooting fish in a barrel on the short side. Many, many stocks will get unmercifully pounded into the dirt as '98 draws to a close. Regards, drakes353