To: Enigma who wrote (19559 ) 9/23/1998 9:16:00 AM From: Giraffe Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116762
Kaplan from Tuesdayinvestor1.com WHY BEARISH?--Most gold mining analysts have increased their bearishness over the past several weeks, which is contrary to the usual behavior after a modest rally. One likely explanation is that these analysts are being compensated primarily by short sellers, and they want to give their clients a final window of opportunity to cover their short positions before the heart of the rally takes place. Especially with the stock market looking a lot more precarious than it did just three months ago, it is certain that even the most determined gold bears have gotten the news that investors who previously had no interest in alternative investments have been making more frequent and serious inquiries about precious metals. COMMENTS OF THE DAY: Commodities rallied moderately on Tuesday, while precious metals ended mostly lower. Gold fell $1.10, silver gained 3.5 cents, platinum dropped $2.80, and palladium slumped $6.30. Bonds declined across the boartd after hitting a new all-time low yield of 5.044% on the 30-year Treasury at 10:07 a.m. EDT Monday, while the dollar was mixed. Sentiment toward precious metals remains quite bearish, indicating that the gold rally still has a long way to go. On the New York Stock Exchange there were 44 new highs and 138 new lows, with 1897 stocks advancing and 1142 stocks declining. On the Nasdaq there were 34 new highs and 177 new lows, with 2365 stocks advancing and 1765 stocks declining. The index put-call ratio was a significantly optimistic 0.98, while the equity put-call ratio was a moderately pessimistic 0.47. The volatility index or VIX, a measure of implied volatilities for U.S. stock index options which demonstrates complacency vs. fear in the market, closed down 2.17 at 37.47. Its intraday high was 39.08 (was 46.82 Monday) and its intraday low was 36.95. On Monday, July 20, 1998, the VIX hit an intraday low of 16.73, its lowest level since November 25, 1996, with most stock market indices at all-time highs. This demonstrated a shocking level of investor complacency typical of a major market top, and confirms the diagnosis that we are in a primary bear market. Tuesday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a light 22,000 lots. Recently volume has been much higher on strong up days than on strong down days, thus creating bullish on-balance volume. Total COMEX gold open interest on Monday rose 393 (down 183 Friday) to 174,460 contracts. COMEX silver open interest climbed 1,305 (up 126 Friday) to 73,269 lots. COMEX gold warehouse stocks were unchanged (also unchanged Monday) at 924,724 ounces, while COMEX silver warehouse stocks fell 1,262,054 (down 143,874 Monday) to 75,949,208 ounces, their lowest level since 1982. The Johannesburg gold index closed Tuesday morning at 940.0, down 75.9 rand (up 24.6 Monday), with the U.S. dollar at 5.9525 rand (the dollar is now below 6 rand). On Friday, August 28, 1998, the dollar touched a new all-time high of 6.8600 rand.