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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom D who wrote (18043)	9/24/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164684

>> Craig, why do you think the stock is going below $100 in the next month? << For all the same reasons it went to 65 earlier this month. It's interesting to note that so many people were calling for a break below 65 a week ago, now you can't find anyone who thinks we aren't going to 120 on a gap tomorrow. >> You have allowed a very short time for this thing to change directions. << About 17 trading days. If AMZN can rally for the next 17 trading days I won't want to be short anyway. Means I will be wrong this go round. After falling from 147 to 65 (82 points), AMZN has rallied from 65 to 105 in the last few weeks (40 points). That is almost an exact 50% retracement of the decline and a perfectly reasonable place to start shorting. The mistake I made was starting 5 points too early, but it wasn't necessarily a fatal one. AMZN has rallied 30 points in 3 days from bottom to top. 25 points on a closing basis. AMZN has finished up 5 out of the last 6 days. That is usually a good time to begin shorting. AMZN has never closed up more than 6 days in a row, even during it's romance period and the time it tripled in one month. The last time AMZN was up 6 days in a row it declined 6 days in a row afterwards. Before that, it was up 5 days in a row, but declined the following 3 days. The time before that it was up 5 days in a row and then declined the following 4 days. Before that it was up 4 days in a row and then declined for 2 days. Obviously past performance is not indicative of future results, but I think there is a good chance that tomorrow will be the last up day for AMZN this week. Good time to add to or initiate short positions. Another interesting thing I looked at was the magnitude of AMZN rallys off the lows. I see 3 major bottoms this summer and 1 smaller one. (AMZN never had any major corrections before July). 1) The first one occurred on July 13th, where AMZN declined to around 95 (intraday) after peaking above 140 1 week prior to that. From that low of 95, AMZN rallied to it's now all-time high of 147. That is about a 54-55% rally off that low. 2) The second major low came on August 5th where AMZN touched 100 intraday. This followed the high of 147 made around July 21st. The subsequent rally off the low of 100 peaked at 137 on Aug 25th. A relatively weak 37% rally. (One reason I decided to short) 3) This brings us to the next major low, made on Sep 15th at 70 3/8. We have subsequently rallied 30 points or 42%. 4) I suppose you could also include the short-term low of 65 on Sep 1st, where AMZN subsequently failed after rallying 46% to 95 on Sep 8th. In summary, I believe that AMZN presents a great entry point for a short at around 105. I think people waiting for 120 to short might be a little too optimistic. In fact, if AMZN can close above 120 it would probably be best to go long for a brief time. AMZN - Stock Price History Date Close Volume (00s) 09/23/98 105.125 75973 09/22/98 88.188 25525 09/21/98 85.500 39612 09/18/98 79.688 27904 09/17/98 77.000 70763 09/16/98 84.500 65198 09/15/98 73.000 28714 09/14/98 73.688 25100 09/11/98 76.063 39354 09/10/98 79.625 53283 09/09/98 84.500 29827 09/08/98 92.250 36561 09/04/98 86.250 29687 09/03/98 85.875 42456 09/02/98 87.875 78881 09/01/98 78.250 112418