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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (28667)	9/23/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Berney; Well it looks like those mountains in Cuba are taking some punch out of her on this last sat view, & maybe she is slowing her forward motion a bit. ----------------------- As for options, when I first started trading them I took a good hair cut, so with out trying to act like a know it all, I do try to pass on some of what I learned not so much to get people into them but to caution anyone new. The writers of options are more on the professional side than most newbies would think. I've come to see writers know how to hedge them and most buyers lose money by a big margin. A person can make money but they better be a lot better than just good. They have a lot of odds to over come, and for the most part have to sell what they buy back to some other mullet who thinks he is going to make a killing. ------------------ Most writers never buy back an option they let them expire if your a buyer your looking at getting rid of them in a third market, the writer if he's wrong just buys the stock if its a call, or goes short if it's a put and lets the option traders fight it out. The floor traders and specialist can skew the bids/ask ( strip them ) in a heartbeat. ------------------- Any I buy now have to pass what I call a pain test. I don't play very many now, but of the ones I do play I have not lost on one for over a year, but that's due to the pain test. I graph them and only play ones close to, or in the money, when I find a lot of open interest, and them going off at about 1/3rd or less than what most of the buyers paid. That in effect opens up my third market when it comes to selling them, as if she moves just a tad the right way, "those in pain buyers" try to average down, along with a rush by the floor traders, it's always the in pain options that have already been striped & have the big moves. They are hard to find, and at times I wonder if it's worth the effort. By and large my expenses, if I count the spread two ways and both commissions add up over time making the brokers and specialist as much or more than I make, or at least they did on my 97 taxes. ------------------------------ I'm looking at the writing angle now as there is only one commission and the buyer pays the spread, so far if I use say the opposite of the pain test, and write these things where I write at a price well above where 2/3rd were bought , and watch my step it should be a cake walk. -------------------------- In graphing options I'm not so much doing TA , but just finding my position in the pecking order. This is a game of musical chairs, and when the music stops there are always less chairs than dancers, to get the edge you need to have good position in the pecking order. Always play with an edge, as other things being equal you may need it. I maintain traders who don't look at strategy are going to wind up sucking hind tit. ---------------------------- Jim

To: Berney who wrote (28667)	9/26/1998 11:38:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Berney; and ALL ( OT ) Update on George , now very Big and one bad dud. nrlmry.navy.mil That sat picture is 09:25 Am Texas time.. George has put on a lot of size since yesterday, really looks like a very nasty system. And it has picked up speed The news keeps saying they expect it to curve North but I see no sign of it doing so yet. Right now she is still making a beeline for the Mississippi River or Grand Isle. North east of that is the dirtest side and more at risk at this time. She is moving at 11kts, and could put on more speed. In one sense the faster she hits shore the less time she has to feed and grow. On the other hand the faster she moves in the more the wind on the dirty side ( E of the center ) is augmented by her forward motion, but reduces the west side so that's a sort of trade off depending on where you happen to be except the east side most often covers a larger area. I always prefer to be west or better yet to the south of these storms.. ----------------------- She should if she maintains course and speed hit the Mouth of the River about Noon Sunday. By then it will be way to late to get out of low areas, that needs to be done today before dark. This thing is not playing around, the Gulf is warmer than usual this year. ----------------- 11 kts = 12.65 miles per hr. Jim