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To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (53677)	9/23/1998 7:43:00 PM
From: Robert H.	Respond to of 58727

RE: >Wow. Thank you so much for posting that!< DITO, ... Now I can close my window.

To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (53677)	9/23/1998 9:06:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE --------------------------- It is obvious that what fueled the rally today was GREENSPANs comments, and it strongly appears now that a rate decrease on next TUE is incorporated in the market, especially if the market continues up untill then. Subjectively, doubt that there will be much or any pullback this week in light of waiting for the FOMC action on TUE, even though my short-term technicals are in the CLASS SELL territory. As mentioned in one of my earlier index updates the short-term technicals for the ASIAN and EUROPEAN markets are in the lower mid-range and should move up over the next 1-3 sessions, before they also become short-term overbought. Based on the INTL markets it appears that MON/TUE would be the best time to initiate PUTS. Now the question is how much higher can the DOW get. The next important resistance is 8317 which is the LOWS of 8/11. The support area of the 8600 STAIR-STEP becomes a resistance. Since I prefer about a 50 point buffer, I will call that resistance at 8350. The following strong resistance is the 200DMA which is now around 8450. The most important resistance is at 8715 which would set a MAJOR HIGHER HIGH and would probably mean that the market is returning back to an uptrend. I dont think we will get that high within this specific short-term upswing before next TUE. I also have the short-trend trendline slightly above todays close at about 8200. On the chart, its hard to tell exactly, but I should be within 25 points. Since it is so close, the chances of breaking it is quite likely. Even in light of todays huge run the DOW has only recovered 56% of its pullback from the start of this pullback at 8754. Even if the DOW does get to 8300, that would still only be a 67% rebound, which is still in line with rebounds after a strong pullback, if we use JERRY FAVORS figure of 62%. Just want to put things in perspective. As strong as today's rebound was, I still feel that we still have a good chance to retest the lows again at 7500-7400, but if we break the 8350 resistance the chances will decline. Whether the 7500-7400 support will be tested in the upcoming pullback is uncertain, but do feel that the DOW can, at least lose 50% of its gain, so if we get to 8300, feel that we could easily see a pullback to the 7850 range. Again, I do not think there will be a strong pullback untill next week, but the DOW could also just remain relatively flat (withing 100 points) until then. Since my short-term technicals are so overbought, a move to 8300 may be pulling on the rubber band/guitar string too tight, and the reflex action may be alot stronger than most may expect. Now if Greenspan does not reduce rates on TUE and the DOW does move up to 8300 - WATCH OUT. Please understand that there will still be a pullback even if Greenspan reduces rates, and subjectively feel that many may be disappointed with only a .25% reduction. Seeya