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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6628)	9/23/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

My firend is going to China on Friday... He converted his currency into 130 Yuan. Let's get seriuos here, is that going to be enough for 4 days? I mean I can't survive on that amount for 1 meal here.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6628)	9/23/1998 8:19:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Henry, may be the first step to IMF reform is to get rid of this day dreamer. Ramsey Thursday September 24 1998 Asian storm passes as nations rebuild, says IMF chief SHEEL KOHLI in London International Monetary Fund managing director Michel Camdessus has proclaimed the worst of the economic crisis in Asia is over and that signs of recovery in countries at the centre of the turmoil are beginning to emerge. He said yesterday that even Japan, which had faced a year of "catastrophe" this year, would see an upturn in the second half of next year. In an upbeat message delivered in an interview on French radio in Paris, he said the strict IMF reform programmes implemented in Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia had begun to show signs of progress. "I think the worst is past. We can only deal with the problems of employment with sound financial grounding, and in those countries where the financial basics - balance of payments, inflation . . . foreign exchange reserves - are established. "I am confident in the growth in those countries and I think that from 2000 or 2001 they will start to grow again on grounds more healthy and more lasting than in the past." He also believed Japan would eventually take permanent steps to reform its crippled banking system, despite the collapse of the latest deal after opposition and government politicians failed to agree on how best to bail out the sector. "We think at the International Monetary Fund that while this year will be catastrophic - a year of economic contraction of 2.5 per cent - next year, in the second half of the year, should be the start of the recovery." His comments come days ahead of the IMF's release of its World Economic Outlook report, which will make key forecasts for growth in leading economies. Yesterday, Mr Camdessus predicted that world growth this year would slow to 2 per cent and that next year's growth would only be slightly higher. "For 1998, we think [growth] will be around 2 per cent. We think it could be a very little bit better. "Europe should grow maybe a little slower than this year but let us say between 2 and 3 per cent." He said the rest of the world was now relying on Europe and the US to be the engine for growth in the global economy. "We are in a world in which the two largest economic powers, the United States and Europe, are doing well, while the rest of the world is doing badly, so [it is important] Europe and the United States manage their affairs well," he said. "It is good that the Europeans try to make their interest rates converge as low as possible, that is at the levels currently in France and Germany, I think they must continue their efforts to introduce more flexibility into their economies, because that is the way for these economies to grow faster." Earlier this week, the European Central Bank president, Wim Duisenberg, predicted that European interest rates would converge at core country rates of about 3.3 per cent in the remaining days before the introduction of the European single currency. Mr Camdessus also pledged to help Russia, but only on the condition that Moscow came forward with a credible reform package. "On the day that [Russian Prime Minister] Mr [Yevgeny] Primakov comes to us and says 'this is what I want to do', if the plan is credible, we will support it. "We have created the foundations of a market economy and the country knows it can live without inflation, and it was on the verge of an economic rebound." The IMF wants broadly to see a re-establishment of the rouble, a re-enactment of the budget on credible foundations and Russia dealing with creditors in a "civilised" way. "That is not by imposing confiscatory solutions but rather negotiating a debt rescheduling. If they do all that, we will certainly be ready to help them."

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6628)	9/23/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Henry, I am dead serious about Greenspan's mumble jumble being months behind what we have been discussing on this thread. This is the third Greenspeak speech within the last 4 weeks that I forced myself to sit through. The theme is pretty much repetitive. The time for action is now. If he is listening to himself, the US is the last oasis and absolutely cannot fall. Like I said earlier, he needs to take a look at his job description. He is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, though an important role, he is not some global economic czar. Pay attention to what he can do, take a lead role and let the rest of the world fall in place. If US falls into any form of a recession, the impact to the rest of the world could be devastating. We have to keep consuming at current pace, if not higher, just to keep the stability. Of all the articles I have read, this guy Makin makes the most sense. By the way, do you know his backgound? I have never heard of him before. aei.org Is cutting rate for 250 or more the answer? The Fed had already been adding liquidity for quite a while. May be irrational exuberance, and therefore the wealth effect is the best answer. Ramsey