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To: Larry S. who wrote (16458)9/24/1998 6:52:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
random morning thoughts

Larry, I agree 100% with you (maybe because I'm only on my third cup and not fully awake yet)

I sold heavily into yesterdays rally, mainly late in the day
am 100% cash in trading and heavy cash in other accounts

it is always difficult to tell exactly why the market moves but the last few days I'll put on the thought of a rate drop
remember that a decrease will only be on the very short rates, with the fed mainly reflecting what has already occurred in the market
and with the flat/inverted yield curve long term rates may not be impacted much if at all

the Fed meets on Tuesday
if they cut rates I see the market selling off a bit on the news
if there is no cut I see a 500-700 point selloff

the DOW is showing a few clear cut trading ranges these days; watch the support and resistance pivot points for an indication of the next direction
7500-8100
8100-8300
8300-8750
8750-9100

sell when near the resistance
buy if a break occurs

look at 1-3-6 month charts on given stocks to determing their trading ranges; don't get locked on just the daily moves

futures are about flat right now; watch the first 15 minutes or so before taking on new positions

even with the recent 10% or so run up there are tons of stocks that are 20-40% off their highs, plenty of fodder out there

this market still looks to me like one for day trades and 2-5 day swing position trades; not one to put on new long term positions

with the big moves in good/great stocks why play with any crap at all? just makes no sense to me
if you can pick up 5-15% on a super company with little risk of a major short term surprise there seems to be no need to try to catch a bottom on anything
just play the swings