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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1184)	9/24/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 15132

Bob said he rated the Bay Area as tops in the world to live.... It is a bit expensive. 8) This article biz.yahoo.com is about one of the nice neighborhoods to live. There are many others at about the same price level. I've seen 50% price appreciation in my home since I bought 4 yrs ago in another nice place to live... Just heard a jobs outlook for the Silicon Valley and housing will be really tight in 10 yrs. These high end neighborhoods will continue to beat the market by my estimate. more than one way to skin a cat or make a buck... regards Kirk out suite101.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1184)	9/27/1998 8:34:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Saturday Full Length Summary FLASH: BRINKER IS THE MOST BULLISH I HAVE HEARD HIM AT ANYTIME THIS YEAR. We have now had three consecutive up weeks in the stock market. We have now put in the bottom in this correction DOW 7537, 957 S & P, around 1500 NASSDAQ. Dow was up 1.7% at 8028, S & P 500 up 2.4% up to 1045 and NASDAQ up 4.8%. NYSE: 2084 gainers and 1374 losers. New highs 131 over 32 the prior week. New highs up about 300%. New lows contracting from 522 to 460. Bond market strong. We are now in a position, albeit additional probing and testing, backing and filling could occur, "at any time within the next few weeks to launch a rally" that carry the markets to all time record heights. Everything that could possibly go right down the road has the potential to go right down the road. We cannot control Russia, Japan, Asia and Latin America. Part of the reason for the intermediate correction is because of what was going on internationally. And in fact, the market had a golden excuse to collapse and refused to do so: Long Term Capital Management. But the market closed to about where it was before the problem was made public at DOW 8000. Brinker later stated in the show that as far a hedge fund or financial failures go, this one has to be rated as one of the all time greatest. My note: So the fact that the market survived this debacle so far is a very positive sign. LTC was short Treasuries and long junk bonds including emerging market bonds. Brinker said LTC bet that interest rates were going up in an inflationary environment here in the US. Wrong. With dead pan humor, Brinker could not for the life of him understand why the smarties in Greenwich did not listen to MoneyTalk because he had been bullish on bonds and told listeners to steer clear from junkies. Change of Brinker position. Previously, he stated that new highs would be made by next summer or within about a one year time frame. He now sees new highs within six to twelve months. (Why Brinker does not announce changes in his thinking by first reviewing previously held market views is beyond me). Prefers SPY over MDY for better chance for full rally participation. How bullish is Brinker? Let me count the ways: 1. "These are the buying opportunities that come along only on pretty rare occasions." 2. "As midterm, off presidential bottoms go, this is going to rank as one of the best ever. All of my market timing model indicators at this time are flashing outright buy signals." 3. On a scale of 1 to 10, the market is acting like a 10 from its lows. 4. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being he most bullish, Brinker is at a 10. 5. The market is more attractive now than at anytime in 1998. 6. Brinker stated that this is one of the most exciting times to be in the stock market. Brinker believes we are about to embark on a rally that will exceed 20% off those lows and it may "exceed 20% by a substantial margin." 7. Brinker trashed the bears on several occasions without taking names. This is the new Brinker Confidence Indicator <GG> in my mind as we saw rare bear bashing in the prior three weeks since the correction exceeded the original benchmarks. The probabilities highly favor a rate cut by the Fed. Historically, that has been a very favorable underpinning to the market. What the market does the day of the cut does not matter. It may have been The only question remaining in Brinker's mind is how much Greenspan will cut the federal funds rate. The market has already discounted a .5% move. Brinker noted that Greenspan has a reputation as a gradulaist. (My note: Greenspan has a penchant for moving in .25% increments). If Greenspan moves .25%, Brinker surmises that there are no more cockroaches behind the baseboard in the form of LTC. I ------------------------------------------------------------------ Greenspan goes .50%, Brinker surmises that he may well have knowledge that there are other hedge funds with similar problems that are unknown to the investing public at this time. In the absence of recession, it is certainly untrue that corporate earnings are one of the most important things in terms of the market outlook. For example, in the absence of recession if you have a flattish outlook for corporate profits but you had an outlook for lower interest and lower inflation, that could justify higher price-earnings ratios. Higher price-earnings ratios would mean higher stock prices so long as earnings were in a flattish area. Brinker sees price-earnings ratio expansion in the next six to twelve months and even though earnings might not go up a whole lot, he thinks the price earnings ratio expansion can get us to new highs in the markets. The idea that earnings are the biggest driver for stock market performance is total nonsense. Suppose you had rising higher corporate earnings were caused by an economy that was growing too fast and, therefore, producing higher inflationary expectations and higher interest rates, the stock market would not go up. The market has a glass ceiling of between 23 and 24.5x earnings. We got to 25x trailing earnings this summer. Charts will show you resistance and support has been but have no predicitive value. You guys all owe me lunch <GGG>.