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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J R KARY who wrote (18435)	9/24/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: Andrew Danielson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213177

Crunching the numbers I haven't finished gnawing on the numbers from these various retail sources, but I will say that my original .67 estimate is looking wrong, meaning too low. Now, I realize these numbers are probably both domestic and retail only. Hence, simple extrapolation from them results in pretty absurd numbers. I thought that when I took into account that the iMac had a delayed international release and that the AIO might make education sales worse than retail, that I would get numbers that were reasonable--perhaps even low. I'm making conservative estimates all over the place, and I still get some pretty absurdly high EPS and revenue figures. 1 million units is most definitely not out of the question if the numbers from ZDnet and the C/Net article are even close to being correct. When I made the original estimate, I was assuming high iMac sales but flat to negative G3 unit growth. These numbers fly in the face of this assumption big-time. I'm not sure how AAPL would've been able to do it, but if they were able to keep up with the iMacs and the increased interest in G3's, then they hit a grand slam. Alomex-was the 214,000 figure you used for July sales concrete or extrapolated? The ZDnet article states the following: May 9% lower than April June 27% higher than April July 12% higher than June April-May-June constitute Q3 and thus equal about 637,000 units. In an equation, April = x May = .91 x June = 1.27.91x or 1.15 x 1.15x + .91x + x = 637,000 units therefore, x= 209,036 units Therefore, June = 1.15 x 209,036 = 240,391 units July sales were 12% higher than June 1.12 240,391 = 269,238 units MUCH higher than your 214,000. This difference becomes important in further calculations, as well. Andrew

To: J R KARY who wrote (18435)	9/24/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: Andrew Danielson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

AAPL holding up very well In the recent past, major moves in AAPL stock are very tipsy. When it reaches its peak, it starts sliding back pretty swiftly and rarely finds stability anywhere near the peak. Right now, the stock is holding very steady at 39 1/16-1/8, and doesn't seem very sensitive to the moves of the market-indicating it still has its own momentum. If it continues forming a base here, expect another surge higher later today or tomorrow. A break below 39 changes everything. . . Andrew