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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jan m. who wrote (8504)	9/24/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Jan, I'm no economic major either, but I would think Brazil would be better off if they can resolve their problems internally. As far as whether or not they'll need the loans, I would guess that depends on outflows up to and immediately after the election. So far, since the interest rate increase, outflows appear to have diminshed, yet remained fairly constant. If we can make it to the elections (next weekend?) it all depends on any relief provided assuming Cardoso wins in the first round (as Mark pointed out, won't be good if he doesn't) and how the market reacts to any announcements he has to share immediately after. I believe they'll push the remainder of the key SS reforms through quickly after the elections. They were just short of votes back in April and May...would think some of the lawmakers have come around since then. Darkgreen is probably the expert here on economics here, maybe he'll have something to add. sf