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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6659)	9/24/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

You are, of course, factoring in the short term down spike of a very large incidence of noshows for scheduled airline flights departing just prior to 00:01 hours on 01/01/2000, are you not ?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6659)	9/24/1998 9:34:00 PM
From: Mark Myword	Respond to of 9980

>But overall I am not factoring in anything for the Y2K situation since I don't have the faintest idea what the impact will be. My educated guess is it will have an impact but not major (less than 1/2% on GDP). I know one person who actually believes it will boost the economy as corporations go on a spending spree buying compliant technology to replace existing systems.< Henry, Emory- One aspect of the Y2K situation which I haven't yet seen mentioned is the tangential benefits of any upgrades that are done to avert Y2K problems. That is, let's say a company is forced to spend $10 million to write new code, replace old hardware that has embedded chips, etc. - what about the offsetting gains in productivity that come with 1998 software vs. say, 1978 software? Surely there must be some offsetting benefit, and a lot of that old crap probably needed upgrading anyway, Y2K or not. So the fact that it is being done now merely shifts expenditures to something with a productivity gain attached, and away from other things...dollars for programmers instead of a new corporate jet, or whatever...it may not really have a bad effect to the economy at all.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (6659)	10/2/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: RagTimeBand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Henry, Zeev & Perky the Mad Dwarf Apparently I'm more concerned about the Y2K situation than you. Below, I've included a few excerpts that discuss some of the troubling aspects of the Y2K situation, specifically the folks who are telling us they have things under control don't know what the status of their assets really is. How bad will it be? I have no idea but wife and I have decided that it would be prudent to accumulate some emergency supplies. Henry - You said: >>...I know my firm has tested all it's systems and we are ok.<< Did any of those tests include the case where there's no electricity for an extended period of time? ;-) Zeev & Perky the Mad Dwarf - Since I have no idea as to what's going to happen I can't dispute anything you've said. Based on the following excerpts it would appear there's going to be a lot of hardware and software sold. I'm doubtful as to whether they will be able to get everything up and running in the time remaining. ------------------------------------- From the Systems & Peripherals section of the September 7, 1998 issue of Computer Reseller News Sidebar: Y2K SPLIT PERSONALITIES -- Managers are of two minds when it come to year 2000 readiness: - 65 percent say fixing the distributed Y2K desktop problem is critically important to their organizations. - 91 percent say Y2K compliance issues are receiving the highest attention possible within their organizations. - 90 percent plan to have all of their enterprise applications compliant before the new millennium. HOWEVER - 30 percent do no conduct hardware and software inventories of their assets - 65 percent have not yet calculated the cost of correcting errant desktops. - 30 percent have not yet secured the required labor necessary to address their Y2K effort. - 71 percent have not yet developed a compliance plan that defines which desktops need to be fixed and in what order. * Base: 449 top-level managers in Fortune 1000 companies * Source: Cameron School of Business, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, with Chris Jesse, President and CEO of Tangram Enterprise Solutions Here are a couple of excerpts form the main story: The study showed that 30 percent of respondents do not conduct hardware and software inventories of their assets while 64 percent of those who do so conduct them only once a year or less frequently. The survey showed 31 percent of respondents have not yet compiled a list of non-compliant applications, but, based on her own client base, Moore estimated the percentage is likely closer to 60 percent industrywide. The survey also indicated that 71 percent of the respondents have not yet developed a compliance plan that defines which desktops need to be fixed and in what order, while 30 percent have not yet secured the labor required to implement their year 2000-compliance effort. In case you're interested I've posted the complete story at Message 5858136