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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gnuman who wrote (65399)	9/24/1998 3:06:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Gene, FYA (Amusement): Beware of Pessimists Below are a number of statements by respected sources regarding things that seemed implausible to them at the time. It is interesting to see how our willingness to accept the status quo and unwillingness to envision a future that is different can blind us to reality. The lesson I take from this is that I need to look beyond the immediate problem and encourage those who are willing to propose a different course. Too often I have been among the pessimists. Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949 I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year. The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957 But what is it good for? Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us. Western Union internal memo, 1876 The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular? David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible. A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp. I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper. Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in Gone With The Wind A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make. Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out. Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962 Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895 If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this. Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M Post-It Notepads So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.' Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and HP interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of your muscles? It can't be done. It's just a fact of life. You just to look at muscle development as an unalterable condition of weight training. Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the unsolvable problem by inventing Nautilus Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy. Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859 The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives. Admiral William Leahy, US Atomic Bomb Project This fellow Charles Lindbergh will never make it. He's doomed. Harry Guggenheim, millionaire aviation enthusiast Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929. Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value. Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances. Dr. Lee De Forest, inventor of the vacuum tube and father of television Everything that can be invented has been invented. Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 I think the result is that Intel's main business is shifting from proprietary to commodity.....I will make a prediction for 1999. Revenues = $27 Billion, earnings = $6.0 billion. About $3.33/share. Gene Parrott, resident pessimist on this thread, 1998 <gggggg>, Mary

To: gnuman who wrote (65399)	9/25/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: stak	Respond to of 186894

>> First let me say that I think Intel will be the dominant factor in PC's and Servers for years to come. They've got too much money and manufacturing prowess to lose this dominance.<< I don't think Intel will ever achieve the same dominance in PCs as they have had prior to the AMD-K6-233 debut. AMD isn't the one to watch out for anyways. I still like Intel a lot in the server market for the next few years. They have a lot of room up the food chain to go yet. >>I think the result is that Intel's main business is shifting from proprietary to commodity.<< Yes , and that's one huge shift! >>To me the key indicator is Intel's more frequent and steeper decreases in CPU pricing. << It sure is. They don't drop the prices that frequently and that sharply out of the goodness of their hearts. >>The AMD design wins at IBM, Compaq and HP indicate to me that the makers are using this pricing leverage against Intel. If Gateway and/or Dell should also show support it will only get worse. << Oh-oh, better keep that one under your hat. >>Many of the new chips Intel is introducing appear to be a rehash of existing chips with KNI instructions. This is more of a marketing game, and it remains to be seen what the marketing impact will be. But Intel has the money and smarts to drive this into the market place.<< ATI's graphic chips are still much better, but if Intel wants to dabble... >>I also see Intel entering more of the true commodity businesses with StrongArm and graphics, etc.<< I hope StrongARM is an out of the park homer for Intel. >>I think Intel has always relied on the high-end devices to fund the rest of the business. To me the key product now is Xeon. A million or more of these devices would more than offset the declining ASP's on the CPU products. I think this is a key product to watch over the coming months.<< Xeon is definitely key for Intel in the short term (next 1 year). It could shore up the ASPs all by itself. We will most likely see lowend servers cutting under Xeon shortly. These servers will be for SOHO businesses.