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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: matt fahy who wrote (22244)	9/24/1998 5:42:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 45548

Matt, >>I can't believe this myself yet, but I am 100% OUT (at $30 5/8) of my trading position in COMS, I don't touch my l-t holding very often which I still hold some in. Two days of weakness after earnings and market looking and acting sick after such a huge rally yesterday doesn't make me feel confident right now.<< I can't say I blame you. This market is torturous. The thought of going down again to who knows where defies all logic, but you certainly can never rule out the possibility as we keep learning. I don't know about this support stuff though. Remember Raymond James said yesterday that we bounced off 200 DMA support twice and that was strong acknowledgement by the market that we would move up after we had "shaken out" some traders (or who ever he meant). Then today, we open up below the support and move down. IMO, there's some truth to all. I think today's market was reacting very strongly to Greenspan's interest rate talk (which was good yesterday). But in combination with the Long Term Capital,which needed to get bailed out by the FED just piles on a lot of negativity and fear to the market. Remember how we try to figure out where COMS is going and we usually qualify it with, "...as long as the market doesn't crack". Well, I think today it cracked big time. Just look at the banks, they've taken big hits already, and today they still take some more. And since COMS is still in a vulnerable state, investor's aren't going to jump into it wholeheartedly when it looks like the market might do us all in anyways. So, I don't know what the answers are, but I think this thing is bigger than COMS. I think COMS report was at a minimum "acceptable" and nothing in it worth punishing COMS. It was not disappointing. >>I guess Eric still has something to learn about analysts, I really thought he should have by now. He probably feels he's damned if he does and damned if he don't<< I could be wrong, but I don't think he did anything wrong. After the CFO talked to Paul Johnston in early May, COMS went down alot. After all that, the earnings estimates were at least all cut in half. So, the idea is to let COMS make earnings estimates easily for the next several quarters until the company regained itself. Well, that goal was met...and earnings were easily beat. So, I think COMS did the right thing with the WS. In fact it was one of the first things IMO that it started doing right with WS to get it back on track. Anothewords they started managing earnings expectations correctly. >>plus this Paisley fella is the real one who needs to give the analyst's the most accurate projections possible, yet hold onto a few pennies in his pocket until that rainy day...<< See, that's what I think they did, which is good. And last May, it was Paisley who talked to Paul Weinstein and set off COMS huge slide down to 24 the first time. There's just too much fear in the market, and anything that doesn't look rock solid is susceptible to being slaughtered. Look at this news report I just got from WSJ: Stocks tumbled Thursday, as anxiety about the financial sector's exposure to global economic turmoil sparked a sharp sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 150 points, or 1.9%, to 8002. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 40 points, or 2.3%, to 1720. Anyways, I tired now, so I'll think about things more later. I don't feel like riding things down again, but I'm not convinced yet that we will be going down some more. Difficult to tell. joe