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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (353)	9/24/1998 7:20:00 PM
From: Terence Mitchell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

Hi jhg, maybe Buffett does understand computers by now, however he will not change the habits of a lifetime (not at his age) so regardless of what model Dell is, he still won't buy. Besides he's done pretty good so far with his habits. I predict that the current purchase of General Re will take his shares to the $150,000 level within 2 to 3 years, in fact the amount of cash he will have to deal with over that same period will be kinda scary. We will have to wait awhile to see wether I'm wrong, seeing as how I've been invested in BRK.A for quite awhile I am prepared to wait for the outcome (in other words I'm betting one hell of a lot of money that I'm right) regards, Terence Mitchell

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (353)	9/24/1998 9:16:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

<<Dell is more than just a computer box maker. It has a unique business model, build to order just in time manufacturing , virtual integration with suplliers and customers. Would not Buffet be interested in this? And why can't Buffett understand computers? I don't believe him. He is being disingenuous.>> Buffett had Microsoft served on a plate to him by Gates himself and bought 100 shares for his "personal account" because he kind of liked Gates. He means it. I agree with you that it is not because he doesn't understand certain technology companies. I think it is because he DOES understand the technology business. Buffett says he wants businesses with no change. Very long product cycles. i.e. you know that the leader in the industry now will be the leader ten years from now, and that there can be no techological leapfrog from some new competitor. Chewing gum. Soft drinks. Razors. THIS IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS - ITS EVEN HITTING INTEL NOW. Microsoft may not be invulnerable either. If I gave you two industry leaders and asked you to bet on the one most likely to lead its industry ten years from now, which would it be? Microsoft or Wrigley? Wrigley is a Buffett company. Microsoft may be. So if both go to much cheaper levels, I'll tell you honestly. My money's on Wrigley or Coke. It is not that he does not understand your logic. You don't understand his. JJC