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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28819)	9/24/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

Less we forget -- a substantial Fed rate cut will further collapse the morgage-backed security & junk bond market. Morgage-backed securities was a favorite of hedge funds as one leg in their derivative plays (who, prior to July, was predicting interests could go down? -- impossible!). I think this one is a damned-if-you-do & damned-if-you-don't scenarios for AG. Interest rates may go lower, but we still get a liquidity crisis as banks freeze up lending. Prior to yesterday, I thought Bob Prechter's prediction of Dow 2000 in December (DECEMBER, 1998!! for god's sake) was totally whacky. Now, I'm beginning to imagine how it could happen. EDIT - after posting just read today's Street Life (Fortune mag) Following Wednesday's Greenspan speech, a Wall Street source said there is talk that the Fed may hike the capital requirements for big banks, and also order them to disclose more information about derivative exposure and off-balance sheet risks. The bottom line is that these moves could force banks to curb lending or issue new stock to increase their capital. Neither of these scenarios would be good for bank earnings. Expect to read more about this elsewhere, but you heard it here first.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (28819)	9/24/1998 9:55:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

BILL, >>>>>> Well see, Don, YOU called it right today. With Globex now down strongly, ANYTHING is possible for tomorrow! <<<<<<<<<<< Firstly you are wrong, since I had indicated that today would most likely be up, but if it was up it would not be up much. So, I was wrong. You missed the whole gist of my message, which was to make sense of the market as indicated in the first sentence. I also implied the exuberance of both BULLs and bears. I also had a seperate note which went deeper into my thoughts which was on your thread. exchange2000.com I felt that a good thread like yours with alot of talent, was becoming a BULL & BEAR battleground with all the exuberance from both the BEARS and BULLs. Yeah, I know its natural that when the market is running up the BULLs come out and when the market is dropping the BEARS come out - both sides bragging, patting themselves, and ridiculing the other side. It is obvious that you missed my whole point, and that you just want to continue to BULL & BEAR battle with me, by the above response that you gave. I just feel that over exuberance in either direction can lead to the deterioration of a thread, which has happened many times. I just feel it a shame, but its your thread. Sorry for posting to you, since you obviously are taking it as an attack on your position. My only attack is on overexuberance and the childlike attitude that I see too often on many threads. Seeya