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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3180)	9/24/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: Bulls	Respond to of 3736

Did anyone listen to the conference call?

To: Mr. Sam who wrote (3180)	9/24/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3736

Speedfam did a decent job this quarter by breaking even considering industry conditions. However, the equipment industry is rapidly eating into their backlog in calendar 3q to "pushout" the inevitable business model collapse. Please note that SFAM's backlog declined 33% sequentially. Senior management of equipment Co's can't cut expenses fast enough to offset the rapid rate of order deterioration. This is the longest and deepest recession in semi land history! This came about by the pac rim governments financing commodity chip capacity without out regard for return on investment. We apparently are way overbuilt globally and know one in the world realized the extent of die shrinks combined with 3rd world countries experimentation with capitalism. Positives: DRAM prices have stabilized. I have never seen more announcements in my career in one quarter of capacity coming off line. I'm currently looking for a trough in the book to bill ratio by the end of calendar 1998. I expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing aggressively SOON! These stocks should all lose money in the fourth quarter of 1998!! This is a positive!! This will be the time to make major capital commitments to this entire group!!! Buy when blood is running... We are not there yet,however, we are not far from the valley of the shadow of death. Purchase of these stocks in the valley will yield a 3 to 4 fold return on investment over the ensuing 24 months. However, remember that all technology stocks with the exception of CSCO and MSFT are CYCLICAL. Sell at 3X to 4X revenue when orders are accelerating!! SFAM is a good company in a good industry. As many of you know, I would like to see them merge with IPEC and maximize returns to shareholders from the CMP market opportunity. This would allow them to gain share relative to AMAT and cut all of the expense lines on the combined business model except R&D. Hell the combined R&D alone in metal and oxide applications would give Jim Morgan a run for his money... I will post when the time is ripe for committing new capital.. Good Luck to all holders of this fine little company... Regards, Jay