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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cyrus who wrote (20677)	9/25/1998 3:15:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

JP and Cyrus---Japan is unable to hold the 415 point gain yesterday it is at 13800 level -- what does that mean for us-- These are the levels on global indexes which I am folowing- 1-DOW--- Support-- 7986-- resistance a major one-- 8436--by the way we had two closes above 8000 now and the territory btw 8001- and 8111 needs to reconquered-- I will like to see DOW above this 8000- 8100 range today-- so as to respect the 1040 support-- DOW with all the ferocity of selling was able to remain 2 days above the 20 days MA-- SPZ-- The next point for me is 1087 attack-- if we are able to maintain 1040- in my opinion we may see a move between 1035 to 1065 area today-- we will consolidate here on this grid as I have explained earlier-- BKX- A close below 690 will not be good sign.. 2-UK--The resistance is 5282 3-France-- we are seeing mounting pressures of selling on France because of ALA downgrade-- we may think we see 3200 and bounce from their but we will see these pressures continue until elections are out-- Kohl is known as Cool in France and underlying sense of relief would be to see him back in the office-- I would like to think ir-respective of polls that Germans will bring Kohl back at the moment I can see that this can be a wrong projection but I would like to think that way-- 3400- 3602 are major resistances on the way up-- Germany-4869 as next reistance Nikkei-- 14378 next resistance -- we are at 13700 and change level- I have written about this demography and even Peter Drucker talks about it as the next big threat to developed world-- geographical limitations and demographic contraction has made this nation entrapped in a liquidity crisis-- but it is not the lack of it which is a bigger problem like for other ASEAN economies where you have to bail them out it is excess of it which is a problem-- the politicising of this problem is also not very helpful-- public money usage for this huge bail outs is major issue-- as FAR as none of the banks go under MOF or the government is under no pressure to solve the banking issues- nations can live with huge illiquid banks as far as populace knows that their money is safe-- Japanese are smart operators they are buying time-- trying to delay as much possible the clean up at low interest rates lot of debt does clean out with profit appropriation-- they have lived in recession and have no interest in spending-- they are banking on US and Europe they think that all rising boats will lift their boat too-- some think that 14200 is minimum for Capital adequacy requirement of their banks I think now it is 12800-- as TB profits and slow write offs have helped some of the banks their--Japan has a preoblem with quality borrowers- for an ordinary business the banks would just not lend-- but for me outside politiks I see the ability of MOF to bail out that I know is immense--unlike other situations like Russia and ASEA. So the problem has to be seen slightly differently..