Germany's Election Is Too Close To Call; Dark Horse Appears
By BRIAN COLEMAN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
FREIBURG, Germany -- The most popular politician in Germany has the
crowd hanging on his every word. The man who might be the country's
next chancellor attacks his opponent's record, cracks jokes, thumps the
podium -- and draws a standing ovation.
But the man on the stage here in southern Germany isn't Chancellor
Helmut Kohl or his opponent, Gerhard Schroeder of the Social
Democratic Party. It's Wolfgang Schaeuble -- parliamentary leader of Mr.
Kohl's Christian Democratic Union and the man who just might come out
on top in Germany's national election this Sunday.
The possibility that the wheelchair-bound Mr. Schaeuble could become
Germany's next leader shows just how close the race to run Europe's most
powerful country has become.
"This is the biggest cliffhanger in German election history," says Josef Joffe,
a fellow at the Olin Center for Strategic Studies at Harvard University and
foreign-affairs editor for the Suddeutsche Zeitung newspaper in Munich.
"You can make no bets until the numbers are in."
In virtually every opinion poll released in the past week, the CDU has
narrowed the SPD's once-enormous lead to a thin margin. A Campo-Data
poll published Thursday shows the SPD with the support of 40.5% of
those surveyed, compared with the CDU's 38.6%. The
1.9-percentage-point difference represents a huge narrowing since the nine
percentage-point gap in June and makes Sunday's vote too close to call.
That's especially true given that up to one-third of the electorate still hasn't
decided how it will vote.
Thus the possible outcomes of the election are bewilderingly numerous. If
Mr. Schroeder's Social Democrats hold onto their lead and the
environmentalist Greens manage a strong showing, then a "red-green"
coalition looks likely. Another option is for the current coalition of Mr.
Kohl's Christian Democrats, the Christian Social Union and the
market-friendly Free Democratic Party to win an upset victory and stay in
power.
And the possibilities don't stop there: If extremist parties -- particularly the
former communists in the Party of Democratic Socialism -- win enough
votes to prevent a clear majority of the mainstream parties from the left or
right, the CDU and the SPD are expected to form a "grand coalition" of
the big parties as they once did in the late 1960s. Should the SPD win
more votes than the CDU, Mr. Schroeder would become chancellor in
such a government. If the Christian Democrats come out on top, they will
get to name the chancellor -- and most experts expect it to be Mr.
Schaeuble.
Just a couple of months ago, this kind of talk would have sounded like
pure fantasy. The SPD enjoyed a lead of more than 10 percentage points
in some polls, thanks partly to the telegenic Mr. Schroeder's savvy media
strategy and partly to public desire for change after Mr. Kohl's 16-year
reign.
But the Christian Democrats launched a blistering counterattack this
summer and have clearly gained ground. First, Mr. Kohl began
barnstorming the country with his usual gusto. Then the party gained
momentum when its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, swept to a convincing
victory in regional elections two weeks ago. Finally, a relentless attack on
Mr. Schroeder's record as governor of the state of Lower Saxony is
smudging his once-glossy image as a business-friendly socialist.
Few CDU politicians are more effective at tearing down an opponent than
Mr. Schaeuble. In his two-hour, off-the-cuff speech in Freiburg, Mr.
Schaeuble concentrates almost exclusively on attacking the SPD. He tells
the crowd that Lower Saxony's unemployment rate, crime rate and debt
level are all above the western German averages and he places the blame
clearly on Mr. Schroeder.
"We have the choice between a government that's done well for 16 years
and a man whose region has done poorly during his eight years in power,"
Mr. Schaeuble says, his voice rising. "Sixteen weeks of a red-green
government will seem longer than 16 years of the CDU."
The message seems to hit home with his listeners. Nicolaus Gollrad, a
20-year-old military recruit dressed in a black leather jacket and carrying
a motorcycle helmet, says he came to the rally undecided and hoping to
learn more before casting his first-ever vote. He leaves saying he will vote
CDU and would like to see Mr. Schaeuble as chancellor someday. "He's
one of the most competent people in politics today -- from any party," Mr.
Gollrad says.
In fact, Mr. Schaeuble's road show helps demonstrate why the CDU
campaign is gathering momentum despite the widespread fatigue with Mr.
Kohl. Voters in Germany say they place greater importance on the party
than the candidate. And as the second most powerful man in the CDU,
Mr. Schaeuble is an asset for the party.
Mr. Schaeuble's best feature may be that he's not Mr. Kohl. While Mr.
Kohl's stump speeches are invariably interrupted by a chorus of whistles
and taunts, Mr. Schaeuble's talk in Freiburg is interrupted only once -- a
situation he immediately turns to his advantage. When Mr. Schaeuble's
criticism of the SPD's tax policies prompts a critic to demand what he
would do, the candidate immediately counters with a rapid-fire list of what
the party wants to change, giving exact figures for tax bracket after tax
bracket. Tax reform is the centerpiece of the CDU's campaign platform,
and the crowd responds to Mr. Schaeuble's mental dexterity with
prolonged applause.
Even critics in the audience are impressed. "What he says is concrete and
correct," says Ansgar Foellmer, a geologist who nevertheless plans to vote
for the SPD. "I find this a big difference from Helmut Kohl or Gerhard
Schroeder."
High Popularity
Mr. Schaeuble's aura of competence has made him the country's
best-liked politician. In an opinion poll taken by the Emnid Institute last
month -- the most recent of its kind -- Mr. Schaeuble ranked as the
politician Germans most want playing an important role in their
government. His 70% rating placed him well ahead of Mr. Schroeder, in
second place with 66%, and Mr. Kohl, with 42%.
"People trust Mr. Schaeuble to deal with important problems like the
economy and unemployment," says Dieter Walz, research manager at
Emnid. "If the conservatives decided to push Mr. Schaeuble instead of
Mr. Kohl, there's a very good chance they would win the election."
But any discussion of Mr. Schaeuble as chancellor inevitably leads to the
question of the wheelchair. As Mr. Schaeuble himself famously put it last
year in his own blunt way: "Can a cripple be chancellor?"
Yes, he answered in a later interview, "I can do it in a wheelchair."
Mr. Schaeuble has been confined to the wheelchair since a deranged man
shot him during a political rally in late 1990, just days after he finished
leading the West German team that negotiated the unification with the
former East Germany. The attack left him paralyzed from the waist down.
But Mr. Schaeuble bounced back quickly, urged on by his mentor. Mr.
Kohl even gave Mr. Schaeuble a biography of Franklin D. Roosevelt,
highlighting a passage about how the former U.S. president ruled from a
wheelchair. The next year, in 1991, Mr. Kohl gave Mr. Schaeuble the
crucial spot of parliamentary leader, which under the German constitution
makes him the second most powerful man in the country. Then last
autumn, Mr. Kohl formally said what everyone long expected to hear,
naming Mr. Schaeuble as his preferred successor. Mr. Schaeuble has
subsequently become known in Germany as "the crown prince."
Many of those who know him well say the wheelchair poses no obstacle.
Friedbert Pflueger, deputy chairman of the CDU and a Bundestag
member, has traveled with Mr. Schaeuble on trips to Paris and Warsaw,
watching up close as the crown prince handles the long days and the
delicacies of diplomatic protocol. "Physically he is absolutely able to do
the job," Mr. Pflueger says. "It's absolutely possible today to have a
chancellor in a wheelchair. People have to get accustomed to that."
Center Stage
Even if Mr. Schaeuble doesn't become the next chancellor, most
observers believe he will inevitably be at center stage in the coming weeks
and months. If the SPD wins, for example, the stage will be set for Mr.
Kohl's retirement and for Mr. Schaeuble to take over the CDU outright
and be the leader of the opposition. In a grand coalition led by the SPD,
meanwhile, Mr. Schroeder has said he would like the current defense
minister, Volker Ruhe, to be the vice chancellor and foreign minister. That
may sound like a demotion for Mr. Schaeuble, but it's not.
"The leader of the parliamentary party is much more important than the
foreign minister's job," says Dietmar Herz, professor of political scientist at
the University of Bonn. "That's especially true because most of the issues
that will come up in the future are domestic."
Finally, if the current coalition manages a stunning re-election, Mr. Kohl
has said privately that he will step aside before the end of his term to make
way for Mr. Schaeuble. Mr. Pflueger, the CDU deputy chairman, says
that Mr. Schaeuble "will be a winner no matter what happens."
Still, the waiting is clearly frustrating for Mr. Schaeuble. Because Mr. Kohl
put no date on when he will step down, even implying at times that he'll
stay on whatever the outcome, one newspaper dubbed Mr. Schaeuble the
"Prince Charles" of German politics. Mr. Schaeuble even tried in a recent
interview to put some distance between himself and the chancellor. Most
analysts view this as an attempt to carve out a more autonomous public
image.
For now, though, Mr. Schaeuble will have to bide his time. The Freiburg
address is one of his last in this campaign. Like most candidates, including
Messrs. Kohl and Schroeder, he plans to wrap up his campaign Friday
and take Saturday to relax at home. Then, at 10:45 a.m. on Sunday, Mr.
Schaeuble will vote in his southern hometown of Gengenbach, before
speeding north to Bonn to await the outcome of an election that will be
crucial to his and Germany's future.
--Greg Steinmetz and Cacilie Rohwedder contributed to this article |
