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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (17369)	9/26/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

significant downside risk is potentially there even though having some small gains; this is not a thread just for some long-term cisco owners; there are investors looking to go into the mkt and certain stocks, and people that might be thinking of selling their csco and moving to others; if one wants to hold on that's their decision too. Now for those who wants to get in a certain price; imo, the analysis based on potential negative donwside earnings this qtr or warning next qtr can hit csco for 20-25% and if mkt is really bad then it can be 30-35% downside; that's why the WSJ SMARTMONEY magazine has a buy target of 46$ in bad mkt condition, and that was what was said in earlier posts also (51-55$ for normal mkt, and 45-50& for bad mkt). Now, for those who owns csco in significant amount, the question is - Is it worth the risk to hold knowing the fact that there is a potential of significant downside?; what are the possible contributing factors, they were posted in some of the previous posts, and to summarize here; asia mkt share has dropped significantly since the turmoil in asia, and by adding a substantial number of new employees in asia there is a compounded negative contribution to the near term earnings; Europe and latin america is very soft; in america much more stiffer competition with price wars that can drop margin significantly; considering those, and knowing the probability of downside that can be up to 35%, IMO going into the S&P500 SPiDR "SPY" is a much safer alternative- let's put it this way, S&P will not drop 35% in a few days but if csco warns of earnings the possibility is there - S&P500 dropping 35% is like the DOW dropping almost 3000 points (to DOW 5000) in a few days which the chance of happening is virtually nil. SPY will track the mkt and if the S&P500 index moves up 10% in the next few months it will basically move up around 10% also. From looking at recent csco performance, it basically follows the overall mkt condition leaning more towards the Nasdaq index; in a tech oriented up turn in mkt csco can outperform the SPY by about 5%, imo. This 5%, imo is not worth the risk knowing that it has the potential to drop 35%.

To: jach who wrote (17369)	9/26/1998 12:20:00 PM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

Saying free voice calls and not even having any real products today that support voice and SS7 technology (such as 800 numbers, credit card, phone card, call forwarding, intelligent zoning , and many more features of SS7 intelligent transaction and database distribution features) does not make sense. Voice, although much less monopolize here in US, but in almost all the other countries in the world is heavily regulated and most owns by goverment oriented PTTs; not a chance of free voice calls happening in those countries in the next ten yrs and even more; Therefore, based on this simple fact, imo, this free voice calls around the world in a few yrs is a wishful thinking-

To: jach who wrote (17369)	9/27/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 77397

>>imo, with substantial increase in staff compounding the negativity of reduce asia sales<< IMO, the best thing is to prove it with numbers. Chambers said he is doubling staff. Let's be specific. 10 to 20? 100 - 200? IMO, the entire staff is probably not even 1% of total employees. >>Also, europe and latin america mkts are weak as we have seen from europoean based telecom and datacom companies,<< Again, I would like to have specifics. My understanding is that Europe is becoming much more robust for high tech sales. Sure, just recently we had Alcatel preannounce (I'm still not sure what their problem is; is it company specific or europe wide). Same with S. America. Generally, the area is becoming more robust in hi-tech development. Another words, sales are picking up in Europe and S.America. I'd like to see specifics to the contrary.