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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andriy Turhovach who wrote (5659)	9/25/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Harold Engstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

FWIW, I think Jubak spreads himself too thin. He tries to cover semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, biotech, computers and peripherals, etc... The result, I think, is that he has the classic "Jack of all trades, master of none" syndrome. He is wrong much more often than he is right. He chooses Millenium, a lazy choice. Rman's INCY looks pretty attractive now as a result of Bayer's recent investment in the competition, as Rman already pointed out. Vical? He really didn't give a good reason other than making a case that could be made for 20 other biotechs in the same state. Ligand: no focus, lots of waste. Isis actually looks like a possible winner. My own picks for the long term: Biogen and Idec. One of Richard Harmon's favorites, Biotransplant, also looks to be worth a roll of the dice. Just my 2 cents. Harold

To: Andriy Turhovach who wrote (5659)	9/25/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Hey Maineac, Thanks for the interesting reading! One suggestion I have though is to put up a link to the source so we can maybe follow Jubak on our own. ICOS??? This guy seems out there on this one. As V1 pointed out a couple of posts ago, there is some ugly dilution in the warrant situation with this one and they are basically out of cash. The profile I see shows $14.5M cash at the end of 2Q with about a $9M burn per Q. This one won't make it much farther without a round of fund raising, creative or not. Sometimes creative fund raising is just a way of disguising the dilution ala the warrant situation. Yes they have Rathmann and Gates behind them, but the realities of the market just don't support a billion dollar market cap for a company in this stage. They suffer from big names and Viagra wannabe overvaluation and I think this bubble will bust in the short term. Over the long term I am more favorable towards them, but think that if you are looking at them long term that you'll be able to pick them up much more cheaply in the future. I think ICOS is a great short! Rman